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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

“Scott Walker: Wisconsin’s agricultural, manufacturing jobs would be ‘devastated’ under Biden leadership”

That’s title of a FoxNews article. Like all things emanating from the former governor, you have to look at the data to assess. Let’s consider first agriculture under Walker.

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This entry was posted on September 8, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

August Wisconsin Employment: Continued Slow Recovery?

My guess, based on a first differences specification of Wisconsin employment on national, in logs, 2019-2020M07.

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This entry was posted on September 6, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Covid-19 Fatalities, Excess Fatalities, and Conspiracies

In the latest conspiracy theory, some have argued that since only about 6% of Covid-19 fatalities state solely Covid-19 as a cause of death, pandemic fatalities are incredibly overstated. Inspection of the statistics suggest reported Covid-19 fatalities are, if anything, understating pandemic fatalities.

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This entry was posted on September 5, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Robots and Labor Demand: Evidence from Japan”

Today we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Robert Dekle, Professor of Economics at USC.

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This entry was posted on September 5, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Nowcasts

Two-thirds of the way through Q3.

Figure 1: Reported GDP (black), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (green), IHS Markit (green), NY Fed nowcast (red), CBO August projection (blue). Source: BEA 2020Q2 2nd release, GDPNow, IHS Markit, NY Fed, and author’s calculations.

This entry was posted on September 4, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

How Great Are Things for Wisconsin’s Farmers?

It was surprising to me to see a Wisconsin farmer singing the praises of Mr. Trump’s policies. From WPR:

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This entry was posted on September 4, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators, September 4th

With today’s employment situation release, here’s a picture of five indicators tracked by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC):

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This entry was posted on September 4, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Trade Deficit Surges During the Recession

The trade balance hit -$63.6 billion (monthly, seasonally adjusted) in July. The trade balance has been deteriorating since the recession began, in contrast to what usually happens — an improvement in the trade balance, as imports decline with a decline in domestic economic activity.

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This entry was posted on September 3, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

August Private Payrolls

ADP released its August numbers, showing slow growth.

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This entry was posted on September 2, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators, September 1st

IHM/Markit (aka Macroeconomic Advisers) releases July GDP:

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This entry was posted on September 1, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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