Word is that Stephen Moore is in the mix for NEC staff. I think he would fit in perfectly in the Trump White House (hence the reference to Rosabeth Moss Kantor’s concept of “homosocial reproduction”). After all, NEC Chair Kudlow just said the budget deficit is shrinking. Now, consider these instances of Mr. Moore’s sheer mendacity (or, I admit, it could be statistical incompetence):
Is California in Recession (Part VII)
Back in mid-December, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release of May state-level employment and coincident index figures provides an opportunity to revisit this question — it’s likely no recession occurred.
First, the coincident indicators for California and US:
Continue reading
Wisconsin Employment: Already in the Doldrums, Pre-Harley-Davidson
With some tariff induced offshoring of Harley-Davidson, now is perhaps a good time to consider the repercussions of the current administration trade policy on Wisconsin — a steel using (not producing) state, with some cheese and soybean production…
Term of the Day: Effective Rate of Protection
Or, when 10% is not just 10%. (Wisconsin/Harley-Davidson edition)
Will Soybean Prices Recover when China Starts Buying American in the Autumn?
Typically, Chinese purchases of American soybeans picks up in the autumn, due to timing of harvests. If this is an important factor in the recovery of US soybean prices, one would expect futures for November delivery of soybeans would reflect that fact. As of today, they don’t.
Continue reading
Thanks, Trump: Wisconsin Cheese and Motorcycle Edition
The Trade War to Date
Term Spreads in 2018: An Annotated History
Today, the 10 year-3 month spread ended below 1%, in the absence of safe haven effects. The 10 year-2 year spread ended at 0.35%.
Continue reading
As a Social Scientist, I Thank Mr. Trump: Trade Policy Edition
One of the key difficulties in measuring effects and attributing causality is the fact that there are typically many confounding factors. That is why social scientists (and financial economists) often resort to event analyses — looking at what happens around a certain event (like an announcement) when little else is happening. Because there is so much going on with the Trump administration, this is not always possible. However, yesterday evening, the White House released a directive to USTR to identify an additional $200 billion worth of taxable Chinese imports. Here is what happened.
Continue reading
Round Two for US-China Trade?
One irrelevant graph and one (possibly) relevant graph, in light of Mr. Trump’s statement on additional trade sanctions.
First, the irrelevant: the US-China trade deficit, which has been deteriorating over the first five quarters of the Trump administration.
Continue reading