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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Business Cycle Indicators as of December 1st

With the release of monthly GDP numbers, we have the following picture of some of the key indicators followed by NBER:

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This entry was posted on December 1, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “You don’t miss international cooperation until it’s gone”

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy  School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate .

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This entry was posted on November 30, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

The New Economic Team?

As of 11/29. Can you tell a difference?

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This entry was posted on November 29, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Trump’s Trade War by the NIPA Numbers

National Income and Product Accounts numbers that is.

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This entry was posted on November 29, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Wisconsin Economic Activity in October

As measured by the Philadelphia Fed coincident index.

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This entry was posted on November 28, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators as of November 25th

With October personal income and September manufacturing and trade sales reported today, we have this picture of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee‘s key indicators:

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This entry was posted on November 25, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Covid-19 Weekly Fatalities and Excess Fatalities, as of November 25

Fatalities are rising; CDC determined fatalities consistently below  alternative estimates in recent weeks; excess fatalities are revised upward (a lot, again).

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This entry was posted on November 25, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Stephen Moore: “Trump’s super recovery”

Title of an article a few days ago:

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This entry was posted on November 21, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Wisconsin Employment Down

From Wisconsin DWD this afternoon:

[T]he data shows that Wisconsin total non-farm jobs decreased by 14,700 and 2,700 private-sector jobs in the month of October.
Wisconsin’s unemployment rate for October was 5.7 percent, up from 5.4 percent in September.

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This entry was posted on November 19, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Macroeconomic Policy, Midterm 2 (Nov 18) – Revisiting the Tax Cut & Jobs Act

How would you answer Question 2?

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This entry was posted on November 18, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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