Brat to Liberty University…
Continue readingGuest Contribution: “New Year questions about the economic outlook”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
Continue readingIs Housing the Business Cycle, 2019?
In 2007, Ed Leamer presented “Housing is the business cycle” at Jackson Hole. In 2018, Leamer himself doesn’t think a recession is imminent, but the following graph certainly gives one pause for thought.
Continue readingHappy New Year!
Figure 1: Baker Bloom and Davis Economic Policy Uncertainty index, centered 7 day moving average (gray, left scale), and ten year – three month Treasury spread, % (blue, right scale) and ten year – two year spread, % (red, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com, FRED and author’s calculations.
The Year in Review, 2018: Blowhards at Bay?
Last year’s recap was subtitled “Fighting against the normalization of lying”. At least this year, lies are called lies. Now it’s time to shun the liars, and relegate them to where they belong.
Continue readingTreasury Spreads and Measured Economic Policy Uncertainty for 2018
A correlation shows up in the last month or so:
Guest Contribution: “Six right predictions in 2018”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
In the Space of Two Weeks, the 10yr-3mo Spread Has Halved, and Is Now at 0.35%
That’s all you need to know.
Update, 1/1/2019: Bob Flood sends this graph which — as he characterizes it — “seems to good to be true” (in a social scientist sort of way).
Is California in Recession? (Part XII)
November coincident indices from the Philadelphia Fed are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from a year ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release provides an opportunity to revisit this question (the November employment figures are discussed here). It’s (still) unlikely that a recession occurred.
How I Freaked Myself Out: Economic Crisis Management Teams, 2009 vs. 2019
In the wake of the pre-holiday meltdown in the financial markets, I thought for a few minutes about who would be doing crisis management, especially after SecTreas Mnuchin’s ham-fisted attempt to calm the markets. My musings did not calm my nerves. Consider the January 2009 team and the (likely, barring further dismissals) January 2019 team, and you’ll see what I mean.
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