Messages from the WSJ July Survey:
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-July 2024
Industrial production at +0.6% m/m vs. +0.3% consensus (manufacturing production +0.4 vs. +0.2% consensus).
Will Peter Navarro Be Right on Powell?
As noted earlier, Peter Navarro indicated Jerome Powell would be “gone in a hundred days”. Trump in a Bloomberg interview:
Russia Real GDP and GDP ex-Military Spending
Using the April 2024 WEO projections (the July update indicates no revision for 2024 growth, and -0.3 ppts for 2025 y/y), we can see the following trajectory for Russian output, and Russia output ex-military spending.
The Market Based SOFR Path
As of 7/15 and month ago:
Russia Economic Sit-Rep: Recession in the Coming Year?
Gorodnichenko, in YahooFinance:
July 2024 WEO Update Released
As of today:
Food Inflation Stable, Down in the Midwest
Through June:
China Economic Sentiment
From Torsten Slok/Apollo today, following up on the post yesterday:
Recession Probabilities for June 2025
Probabilities have peaked, using a standard spread model.