That’s the topic of a new FEDS Note that I just published with Hie Joo Ahn. Here’s what we discuss:
The U.S. unemployment rate averaged 8.4% during the first five years of recovery from the Great Recession of 2007-2009, the weakest recovery on record. But as the expansion continued, unemployment continued to decline and by 2018 reached the lowest levels in almost half a century. Why did unemployment remain so high for so long, and what factors contributed to the recent lows?
From Bloomberg, tonight:
Continue readingCNN should dump him as a “economic analyst” — he’s nothing more than a propagandist. Yesterday, on CNN, Mr. Moore stated unequivocally:
Stock market meltdown, government closure, coup d’etat at DoJ, announced exit from Syria, maybe-exit from Afghanistan, tanks on the Russia-Ukraine border, DPRK still developing nukes, and Mattis departs. But at least we’re winning the trade war, right?
Continue readingLast year’s review was subtitled “Fighting against the Normalization of Lying”, with entries on Stephen Moore’s estrangement from the truth, Ironman’s misunderstanding of consumer surplus, and Donald Trump’s confusion over debt vs deficits, among others.
Put in suggestions for this year (preferably from the Econbrowser archives or comments); some candidates: the oil embargo of 1967 , recession in California , the miracle of Wisconsin’s manufacturing revival since the tax credit (hint: there is no miracle) , or how we won the trade war with China before the leaves fell .
From NewsMax:
Council of Economic Advisers Kevin Hassett said he is willing to bet, based on the economy and indicators, that there will not be a recession any time soon, even though the markets have fluctuated a great deal this year.
“The U.S. economy is booming,” Hassett told Fox News’ “America’s Newsroom.” “We got data on Friday that jacked up our growth estimate for the fourth quarter all the way above 3 percent. We’re rocketing along at 3 percent growth, and the markets haven’t reflected the good news.”
Meanwhile, Hassett said that he would “take that bet” that there is not a recession coming in the next year
Some casual observers have noted the predictive power of recreational vehicle (RV) sales. Over the past six months of reported data, five have shown lower sales than corresponding months in 2017.
Around the world, some 10 year-3 month government bond yield spreads are shrinking.
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Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate on December 10th.