Regression 1982q4-2018q3:

f = -18.52 + 0.028pop + 5.182trump

Adj.R² = 0.18, N = 144, DW = 2.07, bold denotes significance at 10% msl using HAC robust standard errors.

Where f denotes mass shooting fatalities, pop is population in millions, trump is a dummy variable for Trump administration.

One can interpret this as follows: a Trump administration quarter is associated with 5.2 greater fatalities from mass shootings, or 20.8 on an annualized basis. (Over 1982q4-16q4, the average frequency per quarter is 4.876). Inclusion of a deterministic time trend yields a negative coefficient on population, and a trump coefficient (4.093) significant at 11% msl.

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.5% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s the second quarter in a row that the number has come in above the 3.1% average for the U.S. economy over the last 70 years, and is well above the 2.2% average rate since the recovery from the Great Recession began
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Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

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