At a minimum, trade policy uncertainty has risen. Whether that has resulted in the stagnation in exports is an open question.
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Scenes from Artemisia: An Opera of Passion, Betrayal and Art
This Saturday, the Center for Contemporary Opera presents scenes from an opera composed by Laura Schwendinger, libretto by Ginger Strand.
Mass Shooting Casualties through 28 October
Regression 1982q4-2018q3:
f = -18.52 + 0.028pop + 5.182trump
Adj.R2 = 0.18, N = 144, DW = 2.07, bold denotes significance at 10% msl using HAC robust standard errors.
Where f denotes mass shooting fatalities, pop is population in millions, trump is a dummy variable for Trump administration.
One can interpret this as follows: a Trump administration quarter is associated with 5.2 greater fatalities from mass shootings, or 20.8 on an annualized basis. (Over 1982q4-16q4, the average frequency per quarter is 4.876). Inclusion of a deterministic time trend yields a negative coefficient on population, and a trump coefficient (4.093) significant at 11% msl.
Strong GDP growth, weak fundamentals
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.5% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s the second quarter in a row that the number has come in above the 3.1% average for the U.S. economy over the last 70 years, and is well above the 2.2% average rate since the recovery from the Great Recession began
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Wisconsin and Her Neighbors: Coincident Indices
Cumulative growth in Wisconsin since 2017M01 lags Illinois, according to estimates released today. And the 2018M09 Wisconsin index is below peak (nobody else in the region is).
Thankfully, “New Nafta” Has Saved Wisconsin Dairy!
Ooops. Jumped the gun. Actually Nafta 0.8 will only yield minor benefit to American dairy farmers. In the meanwhile, prices are plummeting…
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Wisconsin and Her Neighbors
Bruce Hall takes issue with my post on Wisconsin’s employment growth, and writes (sarcastically):
Looks as if every state in the midwest is doing fine except Wisconsin.
Mebbe the unsarcastic interpretation is more correct. I let readers assess, based on these graphs.
Fragile Inferences on Minnesota Minimum Wage Effects
An informal assessment of the impact of the minimum wage change suggests a large negative impact. Appearances can be deceiving. From a forthcoming working paper by me and Louis Johnston, a graph of the log ratio of MN employment in limited service eating establishments to Wisconsin (blue, left scale), and log ratio MN/WI minimum wage (red, right scale).
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US Treasury Yield Curve Website, Today…
Is it just me? I’ve tried 3 browsers and my iphone…
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Corey Lewandowski: “Fed is … a rogue agency”
That’s from a remarkable op-ed in The Hill by Corey Lewandowski. He also writes: