Not quite the Flying Dutchman, Peak Pegasus and its load of US soybeans finally docks at Dalian in China.
等待果陀? – Soybean Farmer Edition
(Translation: “Waiting for Godot”) Many observers have noted that the Chinese must eventually come to the US for some of their soybean needs, as the supply of Argentine and Brazilian soybeans are depleted and American soybeans are harvested. Current futures for November 2018 do not indicate a price recovery to pre-Trump tariff war levels, even if they do come. As of today:
A Time Series Approach to Estimating Excess Mortality Rates in Puerto Rico, Post-Maria
One of the aspects of previous formal studies of excess deaths in Puerto Rico in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria is that the population decline in the years preceding the hurricane strike, while acknowledged, is not accounted for (Santos-Lozada and Howard, 2017, Rivera and Rolke, 2018, Kishore et al., 2018, Santos-Lozada and Howard, 2018). This factor is potentially important because the “normal” number of deaths per month is a function of population size. Ignoring that fact, when taking an average over several years to infer the normal rate will bias up the estimated normal rate and bias down the implied number of excess fatalities.
A Short Macrohistory of Kansas
Following up on Chinn-LeCloux (2018), here are five aggregates for the Kansas economy.
Predictions With and Without Confidence Intervals: Puerto Rico Post-Maria
Compare this assessment (5/31/2018):
Thus, the data suggests that the hurricane accelerated the deaths of ill and dying people, rather than killing them outright. I would expect the excess deaths at a year horizon (through, say, Oct. 1, 2018) to total perhaps 200-400. Still a notable number, but certainly not 4,600.
With a contemporaneous prediction:
From the survey data, we estimated a mortality rate of 14.3 deaths (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.8 to 18.9) per 1000 persons from September 20 through December 31, 2017. This rate yielded a total of 4645 excess deaths during this period (95% CI, 793 to 8498), equivalent to a 62% increase in the mortality rate as compared with the same period in 2016.
When Storage Does Not Save One from Low Commodity Prices
When prices are low for a storable commodity, agents (farmers or intermediaries) can wait for higher prices to sell. Of course, there is a carrying cost to storage for many commodities, like soybeans (deterioration of stock, direct storage costs, opportunity cost of capital tied up in commodity). Hence, while storage can mitigate losses, it does not necessarily eliminate economic losses that arise from persistent tariffs.
A Post in Which I Thank Donald Trump: Pork Chop Edition
I don’t pay close attention to prices of groceries, but the other day, I saw the price of pork chops and said to myself “darned if that isn’t remarkably cheap for pork chops.” So tonight’s dinner has inspired me to give thanks for DJT’s actions.
Call for Papers: West Coast Workshop in International Finance
Submission Deadline: August 17th, 2018
The 7th annual West Coast Workshop in International Finance will be held at the University of California, Santa Cruz on Friday, November 9th. (Past workshop agendas can be seen here.)
Acres Burned to Date
Not a record year, yet.
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2017 Export to China Dependence, by State
Using Census and BEA data, one can assess at least in first order terms, what states will be impacted by tariffs against US exports — as well as the CNY depreciation that has occurred in the last few months.