Maybe. But not as of 2018M01.
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Is California in Recession? (Part IX)
August employment figures are out. Time to re-evaluate this mid-December Political Calculations assertion that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release provides an opportunity to revisit this question (the 2018Q1 state GDP figures are discussed here). It’s (still) unlikely that a recession occurred.
Who Could’ve Known “Crash Brexit” Would Be Problematic?
In the aftermath of the Salzburg summit, where the Chequers plan was dismissed by the EU, and PM May demanded “respect”, the pound has plunged.
“Spreads between U.S. & Brazil Soybean Export Prices Widen to a Record”
That’s the caption to this graph:
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Huzzah! Three and a Half Years Late, Walker Hits His +250K Jobs Promise
As Wisconsinites will recall, as late as August 2013, Governor Walker was reiterating his promise to create 250,000 new private sector jobs by the end of his first term (January 2015). As of July 2018, Wisconsin’s private sector net job creation surpassed Walker’s promised target — a full 3.5 years late.
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W/o Comment: Senate Judiciary Committee – GOP Members
Note: Republican members of the Senate Judiciary Committee (from top left): Chuck Grassley, Orrin Hatch, Ben Sasse, Thom Tillis, Ted Cruz, John Cornyn; (from bottom left) Lindsey Graham, Jeff Flake, John Kennedy, Mike Crapo and Mike Lee. (Photos: U.S. Senate). Source: Yahoo.
From the Front Lines of the (Soybean) Wars
Reuters has an interesting article, entitled “Inside China’s strategy in the soybean trade war”.
Mu Yan Kui … ticked off a six-part strategy to slash Chinese consumption and tap alternate supplies with little financial pain.
Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellowship in International Economics
The International Affairs Fellowship (IAF) in International Economics, sponsored by Kimberly Querrey, offers business economists as well as university-based economics scholars hands-on experience in the U.S. government to expand their range of thinking and work on international economic policy. Possible host placements for the fellowship appointment include but are not limited to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, U.S. Department of Commerce, the Federal Reserve Bank, and relevant parts of the U.S. Department of State and the White House [so the Fed, the IMF, the World Bank, the Treasury or any other policy institution are also possibilities]. The IAF in International Economics aims to enrich the teaching, scholarship, and research of academics, inform the practice of business economists, and expose policymakers to cutting edge scholarly research and academic debates.
For more information, see here.
The Long Run Elasticity of Farm Product Prices and the US Dollar
Expansionary fiscal policy combined with Taylor-rule induced monetary tightening has resulted in a strong dollar. That strong dollar is driving US agricultural prices.
(Still) Waiting for Recovery in US Soybean Prices (Levels, Relative)
November soybean futures keep on going down. And the US-Brazil spread has proven durable.
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