From twitter:
Continue readingWhat a Confidence Interval Is Not
Ever since I read the hysterically incorrect interpretation of a confidence interval from a person who purports to be a policy analyst, I’ve been looking for a succint explanation from a statistician, as a handy reference. Here it is (h/t David Giles via Mark Thoma):
“Go back to Puerto Rico”
“Republican Rep. Jason Smith yelled a potentially racially charged remark across the aisle as Democratic Rep. Tony Cárdenas was at the podium.” (Roll Call)
Continue readingThis Is Winning?
The November trade release on US-China trade:
Continue readingGuest Contribution: “Can Specialization Patterns and Trade Costs Account for External Balances?”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Emine Boz (IMF), Nan Li (IMF) and Hongrui Zhang (IDB). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, IDB, their Executive Boards, or the managements of those organizations.
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“International spillovers of monetary policy through global banks”
That’s the title of a special issue of the Journal of International Money and Finance that’s just been published.
Continue readingThe Modified Yield Curve and Growth Prospects through 2019
It’s kind of limiting to look only at recessions as predicted by the yield curve. What about growth?
Continue readingLest You Be Lulled by the NFP Release: Employment Growth 1 yr before Recessions
Update, 5:30pm Pacific:
Forward looking indicators continue to suggest a slowdown.
Guest Contribution: “The ECB has reached its political limits. Its consequences in eight charts”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Ashoka Mody, Charles and Marie Visiting Professor in International Economic Policy, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University. Previously, he was Deputy Director in the International Monetary Fund’s Research and European Departments.
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Is California in Recession? (Part XIV)
December coincident indices from the Philadelphia Fed are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from a year ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release provides an opportunity to revisit this question (the December employment figures are discussed here). It’s (still) unlikely that a recession occurred in 2017. However, growth has decelerated at the end of 2018.
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