Out of Sample Regression Prediction of Mass Shooting Fatalities

Does a Trump dummy “work”? Reader sam writes:

i think you’re putting too much weight into too few observations.

Some things to make your analysis more convincing 1) show the if predictive accuracy increased with a trump dummy OUT OF SAMPLE or 2) try placing the ‘trump dummy’ variable a few months before or a few months after and see if that changes the coefs. i doubt you’ll see much of an effect.

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Time Series Evidence on the Minimum Wage Impact in Minnesota vs. Wisconsin

  • Is the partial derivative of fast food employment with respect to the minimum wage negative? Maybe, maybe not.
  • Does a higher minimum wage decrease young adult employment? Maybe, maybe not.
  • Does a higher minimum wage raise fast food restaurant prices? Not noticeably.

These conclusions (reported in this working paper written by Louis Johnston and me) stand in contrast to those obtained by Noah Williams, and reported in this CROWE Policy Brief.

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Warren B. Hamilton, 1925-2018

From the Denver Post:

Warren Hamilton passed away at his home in Golden, Colorado on October 26, 2018 at age 93. His primary career was as a research scientist with the US Geological Survey in geologic, and later geophysical branches. He was a geologist known for integrating observed geology and geophysics into planetary-scale syntheses describing the evolution of Earth’s crust and mantle. After retirement in 1995, he became a Distinguished Senior Scientist in the Department of Geophysics, Colorado School of Mines where he taught classes through fall of 2017. Warren also taught classes through winter of 2017 with the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute. He was a member of the National Academy of Sciences, and a holder of the Penrose Medal, the highest honor of the Geological Society of America.

Warren served in the US Navy from 1943 to 1946, completed a bachelor’s degree at UCLA in a Navy training program in 1945, and was a commissioned officer on the aircraft carrier USS Tarawa. After returning to civilian life, he earned an MSc in Geology from USC and a PhD in Geology from UCLA in 1951. Warren was preceded in death by his wife of 67 years, Alicita. He is survived by three children, Larry (wife Leslie), Kathy (husband Steve Harhai) and Jim (wife Marjorie Flavin), six grandchildren and six great-grandchildren.