In a recent paper, Ryan LeCloux and I use five macroeconomic measures to assess state economic performance (post). Here, I use updated data to evaluate Minnesota’s economic performance vis à vis Wisconsin: GDP, personal income, nonfarm payroll employment, civilian employment, and coincident indices and “adjusted” coincident indices.
The Wisconsin Macro Outlook
The June coincident index flattens out; the leading index, released today, predicts a 1.1% growth over the next six months. Minnesota’s forecasted growth is over twice that rate.
Who Will Relent – Xi or Trump? On Actual and Perceived Payoff Matrices
NEC Chair Kudlow in response to the Chinese threat to impose tariffs on an additional $60 billion worth of goods (from Bloomberg).
“Their economy’s weak, their currency is weak, people are leaving the country. Don’t underestimate President Trump’s determination to follow through.”
Trade Policy Uncertainty in Our Times (II): Highest Level in Two Decades
Just in case you were still wondering.
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A Short History of Turning Points in Wisconsin
Ever since the Walker Administration ended the issuance of the Wisconsin Economic Outlook (last issue May 2015), those of us outside of the government have been a little in the dark when trying to assess state level economic conditions in a systematic manner. In a recent paper (updated version 8/1), Ryan LeCloux and I assess how various macroeconomic aggregates track the Wisconsin economy at higher-than-annual frequency. Investigating the behavior of these series yields the following graph.
A Great Second Quarter Report — But Beware the Context
Following up on Jim’s post on the GDP release, here are four observations.
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Great second-quarter GDP report
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 4.1% annual rate in the second quarter. That’s significantly better than the 2.2% average growth we’ve seen since the Great Recession ended in 2009, and is also a little above the 3.1% average for the U.S. economy over the last 70 years.
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The Return of Global Imbalances (As Foretold)
Nearly a year ago, I asked Are Global Imbalances a Source of Concern?. At a minimum, we know they’re back. And the IMF certainly thinks so.
Who Will Help the Hogs?
Unlike soybeans, I’ve seen no rebound in hog prices (front month futures) with the announcement of the $12 billion farm bailout:
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Guest Contribution: “Apology Tour d’horizon”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate.