Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is a commonplace rule of thumb for defining recessions, but the original conception of recessions is not captured by this simple definition. As some people have disagreed with my description (see [1]), it might be useful to review how recessions are defined in the US (with associated drawbacks), and in other economies.
“The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty”
That’s the title of a new paper by Dario Caldara, Matteo Iacoviello, Patrick Molligo, Andrea Prestipino, and Andrea Raffo:
“Massive, rotting soybean pile still burns after catching fire in July”
Additional Graphs for Econ 435 Lecture
In anticipation of Jim Hamilton‘s talk this Wednesday, I’m going to talk a little about recessions in today’s lecture. Here are some data to keep in mind:
Freight Shipping Growth and Recession Probability
Prob(recessiont) = -1.925 – 16.10 freightgrowtht + ut
McFadden R2 = 0.51 NObs = 235 (2000M01-2019M07). Coefficients significant at 5% msl bold.
Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index, Updated to 2017
See the website for the data.
Five Observations on the Employment Release
1. The deceleration in employment growth is noticeable; 2. Taken with the preliminary benchmark revision, it’s possible employment growth deceleration is even more marked; 3. With accounting for temporary census workers, m/m growth is fairly anemic; 4. Nonetheless, latest vintages of key indicators suggest only a slowdown; 5. Manufacturing employment and hours (as well as production) still below peak.
The Politics and Policy of China
A Tenure-track Position at UW Madison
Guest Contribution: “A disaster under-(re)insurance puzzle: Home bias in disaster risk-bearing”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written Hiro Ito (Portland State University) and Robert N. McCauley (formerly Bank for International Settlements). The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affilliated with.
“Predicting the Next Recession” with James Hamilton
I’ll be at this UW Dept of Economics event, in order to learn what awaits us all…
(Actually, it’s required attendance for my Financial System course.)
Registration information here.