There’s an argument being made that because of the zero lower bound, the standard nominal term spread is unlikely to be as accurate a predictor of recessions as it has in the past. A prominent example of this view circulating now is that forwarded by Deutsche Bank’s Dominic Konstam; his analysis indicates a 60% likelihood of recession (WSJ RTE), in contrast to the estimates obtained from the standard model, ranging in the low teens (see for example this post).
Assessing Industrial Policy in Wisconsin
The Wisconsin Budget Project concludes “Costly Tax Credit has Done Little to Boost [manufacturing] Employment”.
Markets post-Brexit
U.S. stock prices fell more than 5% in the two-day aftermath of the British vote to leave the European Union. But equities have since regained those losses and are back near all-time highs.
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US Policy Uncertainty post-Brexit Revised Down
But still looks darned high. Wonder what it is in the UK…
Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index Updated to 2014
The Chinn-Ito index revised and updated to 2014 is now available here.
Guest Contribution: “How to Save the UK (Inside the EU)”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest column written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
I see a possible way out for the trap that Brits now find themselves in, a way to keep Great Britain great.
Policy Uncertainty (in America) in the Wake of Brexit
I find it remarkable that, going by the numbers, economic policy uncertainty is now higher than after the bankruptcy of Lehman — and even higher than in the days after 9/11.
Economic consequences of Brexit
Here are my two pence on some of the consequences of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union.
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Guest Contribution: “Does the Economy Really Do Better Under Democratic Presidents?”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest column written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This is an extended version of a column appearing at Project Syndicate.
Looking at the UK Economy, Post-Brexit
Here are some assessments of the economic impact on the UK economy, over the short (business cycle horizon) to long run.