It’s become commonplace to assert that the passage of the American Rescue Plan ignited inflation, dooming the prospects for the Biden and Harris candidacies. Consider this piece:
“Revisiting the Relationship Between Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates”
From CBO, a working paper by Andre R. Neveu (FDIC) and Jeffrey Schafer (CBO) on the debt sensitivity of the interest rate (DSIR):
Intra-industry Trade Estimated
Oren Cass argues the idea of comparative advantage driving trade is outdated. I agree to a certain extent, but he doesn’t explain why. I’d say intra-industry trade (IIT) – a staple of academic research since the 1980s – is one reason, but that does not provide justification for protection. In fact, his ignorance of IIT suggests his case for protectionism is ill-founded.
When Econ 101 Isn’t Enough: Oren Cass on Trade
In Tuesday’s NYT, Oren Cass makes the case for protectionism.
Sentiment, Confidence, and Expectations: The Latter Is Down
U.Michigan consumer sentiment and Conference Board economic confidence rise. But expectations drop.
Maheshri and Winston: “The U.S.’s Decades Long 2nd Great Depression”
In RealClearPolitics, a provocative thesis, from Vikram Maheshri (U. Houston) and Cliff Winston* (Brookings):
Trump CEA Nominee: Stephen Miran
From Politico today:
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators
NBER BCDC indicators discussed here. Alternative below.
An Alternative Perspective on PCE Deflator Inflation: Instantaneous Inflation
PCE deflator below 2%:
“More and more market participants don’t believe the Fed anymore.”
That’s Heritage Foundation economist EJ Antoni yesterday. Dr. Antoni continues:
Increasingly, people are realizing that the 2% target is long gone. We’re looking at 3% basically as the implicit target. Now we’re in for a lot of pain. So the question is just, is this going to be 1920 or is it going to be 1929