That’s Heritage Foundation economist EJ Antoni yesterday. Dr. Antoni continues:
Increasingly, people are realizing that the 2% target is long gone. We’re looking at 3% basically as the implicit target. Now we’re in for a lot of pain. So the question is just, is this going to be 1920 or is it going to be 1929
Or, “who needs a stinkin’ independent central bank, non-Trump edition.”
Could this article explain why at 1:30 AM CST as I awaited data on the Russian Central Bank’s interest rate decision… nothing happened?
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Consumption and personal income ex-transfers growth accelerate.
From Kalshi, 7pm CT today:
2025 q4/q4 growth median forecast is 2.3%. Here’s a comparison against forecasts and nowcasts.
Notice that I don’t say in or out of recession. Nonetheless, with slow growth (and per capita growth negative), there’s plenty of discussion (e.g., here today). And Trump’s threats of tariffs — even if they don’t come through — could impart enough uncertainty to throw the country into recession.
This probably seems like a silly question, but it’s actually a hard one to answer quantitatively.
Industrial production -0.9% vs. +0.1% consensus (m/m).Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC, plus monthly GDP.
Average hourly wages in construction, production and nonsupervisory workers, in 2023$ (CPI deflated):