The Central Bank of Russia today raised the policy rate from 19% to 21%.
September Coincident Indexes
Three month growth rate 2.7% ann’d, 3 month diffusion index at 48.
Guest Contribution: “Immigration and US Shelter Prices: The Role of Geographical and Immigrant Heterogeneity”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by James Cabral (University of Toronto) and Walter Steingress (University of Wisconsin). The views expressed are solely those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the institutions they are associated with.
The Leading Economic Index, The Term Spread, and Historical Correlations
I’ve updated the “regression camp” membership list. Assuming no recession shows up (hear Cam Harvey talk about the issue), what can we take from the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index returning to recession territory (it’s spent much of the last 18 months there):
What Kind of Macro Model is the Heritage Foundation Using?
From Heritage:
“At least 3,000 North Korean soldiers now inside Russia, US says”
Headline from CNN.
New Paper: No, We Haven’t Been in a Recession since 2022
Downloadable here.
Nonsensical Graphs that People Post
Item 1:
Why So Glum? Structural Break in Michigan Sentiment?
Ryan Cummings and Ernie Tedeschi have a very interesting article in BriefingBook today which casts new light on the disjuncture between measured sentiment and conventional macroeconomic indicators. Cummings and Tedeschi document how the move to online sampling has altered the characteristics of the University of Michigan Economic Sentiment series.
Nick Lardy on China’s Rise and Economic Conflict with the US
This Thursday 4:30 CT at UW: