Here’s a snapshot of nowcasts and forecasts as of today:
State Employment Report for August
Unemployment rises in many states, but so does employment (NFP) growth (report).
Nowcasting Wisconsin NFP Employment
Can we use national employment to nowcast Wisconsin employment? This endeavor is somewhat complicated by the pandemic. With DWD’s release today, we can evaluate the fit of the model.
Is Manufacturing In Recession?
As of August, incorporating latest capacity utilization and production data, I’m tempted to say no, even incorporating at face value the preliminary benchmark revision to employment.
Where Will Mortgage Rates Go?
Ad hoc time series analysis.
Change in Fed Funds vs. Where the Fed Funds Should Be
At the press conference for today’s FOMC meeting, there was a lot of talk about how the 50bps drop was dramatic. That focused on the change, rather than the level…Consider what some measures of the Taylor rule (which refers to the level of the Fed funds rate) indicate.
Summary of Economic Projections: GDP
From the Fed today:
Ten Year Treasury Yields, Dollar Index Down
Apparently some news:
Instantaneous Headline Inflation: CPI, PCE, HICP
With US HICP out today:
Steve Kamin: “The Fed Is (Nearly) the World’s Most Hawkish Central Bank”
From the article (published 9/10), two key graphs: