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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Other perspectives on the new bond market conundrum

Last week I commented on a puzzling phenomenon in bond markets this year– long-term rates have been falling at the same time that nearer-term rates have been rising. Bruegel has a review of some of the discussion of this around the web.

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This entry was posted on September 7, 2014 by James_Hamilton.

The ECB Does QE/CE

From Simon Kennedy in “Draghi Sees Almost $1 Trillion Stimulus With No QE Fight” (Bloomberg):

Mario Draghi signaled at least 700 billion euros ($906 billion) of fresh aid for his moribund economy and left a fight with Germany over sovereign-bond purchases for another day.

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This entry was posted on September 4, 2014 by Menzie Chinn.

Low Long Term Rates to Stay?

As I begin teaching finance in the new semester, I am highlighting the key puzzle of our times, discussed by Jim in his last post, with this graph:

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This entry was posted on September 2, 2014 by Menzie Chinn.

Bond market conundrum redux

As the U.S. economy returns to healthier growth, many of us expected long-term interest rates to return to more normal historical levels. But the general trend has been down since the end of the Great Recession. The 10-year rate did jump back up in the spring of 2013. But during most of this year it has been falling again.

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This entry was posted on August 31, 2014 by James_Hamilton.

Quantitative Implications of Wisconsin Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

No succor from the QCEW series that the Walker Administration previously touted [1]

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This entry was posted on August 30, 2014 by Menzie Chinn.

Wisconsin Forecasted to Lag Further Behind Minnesota

And Kansas travels its own path

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This entry was posted on August 29, 2014 by Menzie Chinn.

“U.K. Wants EU to Block Russia From SWIFT Banking Network”

From Bloomberg::

The U.K. will press European Union leaders to consider blocking Russian access to the SWIFT banking transaction system under an expansion of sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine, a British government official said.

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This entry was posted on August 29, 2014 by Menzie Chinn.

Russian Forces in Ukraine

Edit/update 8/30:

T72BM_in_Ukraine

T72BM (only known to be in service in the Russian army) in Ukraine, 8/26. Source: IISS

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This entry was posted on August 28, 2014 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “The Cause of Secular Stagnation? Relative Prices, Trade, and the People’s Republic of China”

Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Doug Campbell, assistant professor at the New Economic School (Moscow).


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This entry was posted on August 27, 2014 by Menzie Chinn.

I Killed Some Brain Cells Today: Episode 2

“Energy regulation efficiency” and economic growth.

Last time, we turned to the Phoenix Institute for some mind-numbing, soul-killing “research”. Today we look to the Pacific Research Institute for some dumbfounding “analysis”.

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This entry was posted on August 25, 2014 by Menzie Chinn.

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James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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