Industrial production is down. Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment is down. Global Temperatures hit records in 2014, 2015.
Guest Contribution: “China’s Slowdown”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99. An earlier version was published by Project Syndicate.
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Let’s Stipulate: Some Regulations Are Good
One GOP senator says restaurant workers shouldn’t be required to wash hands after going to the toilet.
The RMB’s Future: Four Views
At the last ASSA meetings in San Francisco, I participated in a Society for the Study of Emerging Markets panel entitled “Can the Chinese Renminbi Rule?: If So, How and When?”
Governor Walker: “There are more people working in Wisconsin than at nearly any other point in our history…”
Where are the factcheckers when you need them?
Employment and GDP Growth
Yesterday’s NYT noted “U.S. Growth and Employment Data Tell Different Stories”:
Measured by traditional yardsticks for growth, like gross domestic product, the American economy definitely looks weak. View it through the prism of hiring and employment, however, and the economy seems surprisingly strong.
IMF: “Subdued Demand, Diminished Prospects”
From today’s updated World Economic Outlook update:
Risks to the global outlook remain tilted to the downside and relate to ongoing adjustments in the global economy: a generalized slowdown in emerging market economies, China’s rebalancing, lower commodity prices, and the gradual exit from extraordinarily accommodative monetary conditions in the United States. If these key challenges are not successfully managed, global growth could be derailed.
World oil supply and demand
According to the Energy Information Administration’s Monthly Energy Review database, world field production of crude oil in September was up 1.5 million barrels a day over the previous year. More than all of that came from a 440,000 b/d increase in the U.S., 550,000 b/d from Saudi Arabia, and 900,000 b/d from Iraq. If it had not been for the increased oil production from these three countries, world oil production would actually have been down almost 400,000 b/d over the last year.
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Are We in a Recession Now?
I’m not going to “pull an Ed Lazear” and declare “no”. But the current versions of indicators are not very supportive of a “yes” answer.
Spreads and Recession Watch
Since we’re talking recession [0], it’s of interest to see what market indicators are saying, for the US and for the world. First, the term spread for the US: