Manufacturing output is returning to pre-recession levels, exports are continuing to grow,and the trade balance is shrinking.
Macro Implications of Extending Emergency Unemployment Compensation
From CBO:
…CBO estimates that extending the current EUC program and other related expiring provisions until the end of 2014 would increase inflation-adjusted GDP by 0.2 percent and increase full-time-equivalent employment by 0.2 million in the
fourth quarter of 2014. …
Predictions for the New Year
From Tim Duy:
Pencil in somewhat stronger growth in 2014. Pencil in a steady reduction in the pace of asset purchases until the program winds down at the end of the year. Pencil in an extended period of low rates. But also recognize that the tide of monetary policy is now receding– albeit ever so slightly– with the Fed’s first step of ending the asset purchase program.
And from the invaluable Bill McBride: Ten questions for 2014.
“Is the U.S. economy really about to go boom?”
Politico Magazine asks “should we really be so optimistic about the year ahead?” Mohamed El-Arian (PIMCO), Jared Bernstein (CBPP), Laurence Kotlikoff (Boston U.), Robert Reich (Berkeley), Menzie Chinn (Wisconsin U.) and Jeffry Frieden (Harvard), Jeffrey Frankel (Harvard) and Dean Baker (CEPR) respond.
“For a Few Dollars More: Reserves and Growth in Times of Crises”
That’s the title of a paper coauthored by Matthieu Bussiere (Banque de France), Gong Cheng (Sciences Po), Noemie Lisack (European University Institute) and myself, in which we examine two key questions:
[F]irst, has the accumulation of reserves effectively protected countries during the 2008-09 financial crisis? And second, what explains the pattern of reserve accumulation observed during and after the crisis?
A lack of ethics
David Kocieniewski of the New York Times is guilty of some outrageously bad journalism in the form of a groundless ad hominem attack on the reputation of two professors for the sole purpose of reinforcing the prejudices of his misinformed readers.
The Year in Review, 2013: Fantastical Pseudo Economics
The Shoveling Must Continue
Bill Beach has retired, and the Heritage Foundation no longer “scores” budget plans. Yet there is still so much … stuff … out there to debunk. Without further ado, here are my top ten examples of delusion in 2013.
All quiet on the southern front
After a wild ride in 2011-2012, interest rates have settled down on European sovereign debt. For now.
British Economic Triumphalism in Perspective
Updated, includes summary of an econometric analysis of impact of austerity in the UK
Prime Minister Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne has lauded the recent UK growth numbers as validation for the policy of austerity [1] (recently relaxed, although he doesn’t mention that).
Reason for Optimism?
Despite the best efforts of some policymakers to reduce aggregate demand by way of austerity measures [0], there are glimmers of hope for more rapid growth.