+139K vs +126K Bloomberg consensus; private NFP +140K vs +110K. Manufacturing employment down 8K vs -1K consensus. But durable manufacturing production workers down -12K.
Is American Consumption too High?
The Economist asks the question, and says — in part — yes.
Re-inversion 10yr-3mo, Weakening Dollar
As of June 5th, 10yr-3mo reinverts.
Weekly Indicators using Data Releases thru 5/31
WEI continues to decline.
GDPNow Bounceback (Kind of)
Atlanta Fed nowcast shows 4.6% q/q AR growth in GDP. Interestingly, this does not take GDP back to pre-“Liberation Day” trend.
“Heritage Foundation Names EJ Antoni as Chief Economist”
Announcement on May 28 from Heritage:
The Roller Coaster Ride Continues … EPU through 6/1
And it doesn’t seem like it will end soon, unless …
“Trump may actually want a recession…”
That would explain a lot. He’s not very effective at much, but he is effective at setting the preconditions for a recession. From Yahoo!Finance quoting the Kobeissi Letter:
Global Imbalances as Global Recession EWS?
EWS = “Early Warning System”. Jamel Saadaoui has an interesting blogpost, investigating whether the median current account to GDP balance — namely when it becomes very negative, -2% to -4% — presages a global recession as defined by Kose et al. (2020).
Policy Uncertainty Watch
Data through yesterday, from Baker, Bloom and Davis: