Updated to include core PPI:
CPI and CPI Core Surprise on Upside
CPI m/m at 0.2% vs. 0.1% consensus [correction 7:15pm CT MDC] (Core 0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus). Here are snapshots of instantaneous inflation rates for September headline, core, supercore, and services supercore CPI, headline and core PPI and HICP and headline and core PCE deflator for August.
Wisconsin Exports during Trump Trade War 1.0
A reminder:
Project 2025: So All Your Hurricane Projections Can Look Like This
Envisaging Milton under Trump 2.0:
GDPNow Up to 3.2% SAAR
GDPNow up from 2.5% on 10/1 to 3.2% on 10/8 (q/q AR), on the basis of auto sales and employment situation releases.
No Recession in 2022H1: Edition MMMXXVII
Reader Steven Kopits writes:
Two down quarters in 2021. Typical definition of a recession. I don’t believe I have declared a recession since.
EJ Antoni/Heritage Foundation (Aug 5): “I would not be surprised if a recession is backdated to July or the current month”
From FoxNews. Here’s a picture of indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC over the past year. Note that August numbers are mostly up.
Business Cycle Indicators for the Euro Area, as of 10/4/2024
The CEPR-EABCN is one arbiter of business cycle chronologies in the Euro Area. The latest announcement is from April 17, 2024. What do more recent indicators suggest (a partial survey)?
Will Household Wealth Be a Tailwind to Consumption in 2024Q3?
Here’s a picture of household net worth, in both nominal and real terms, with my nowcasts for Q3.
State of the Macro Economy, 10/6/2024: 19 Indicators and 4 Nowcasts
NBER BCDC indicators, alternative indicators, weekly indicators, nowcasts. As one who noted the high likelihood of recession by August 2024, I can’t see a downturn in the current vintages of (preliminary) data.