From Rappaport, Swanson, Duehren, in NYT yesterday, an interestingly monochromatic picture of the incoming economics team.
“southern Caifornia [sic] is about as dry as Wisconsin and Michigan”
In wondering why the LA wildfires had worse outcomes than say those in Wisconsin, Mr. Bruce Hall makes this assertion.
Policy Uncertainty, VIX, 5 Year Breakevens, Dollar Up
Since the election:
Hazards of Reasoning by Anecdotes: LA Fires Version
Mr. Bruce Hall speculates on the causes for the severity of the LA fires:
Inflation Expectations since the Election: Up
At 10am ET, 10 year Treasury yields were at 4.8%, up from 4.7% at Friday’s close (delta 8 bps). TIPS 10 year were at 2.35% up from 2.32% (delta 3 bps). Here’re some 5 year inflation expectations data over the last year.
Jeffrey Tucker in the Steps of Shadowstats
Remember Shadowstats? Well, there’s always a John Williams. Here’s Tucker in EpochTimes (reprinted in ZeroHedge):
Billion Dollar Disaster Cost to Year-to-Date (assuming nothing else happens in January)
From NOAA to 2024, and guesstimate for January 2025:
Pecuniary Benefits of Showing the Flag
Six Measures of NFP Change since 2023M12, Four Measures of Private NFP
What do different measures say about the trajectory (rather than level) of employment?
Guest Contribution: “Retrospective on the First Year of Trump’s Second Term”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate.