While overall private employment has risen, firms with 1-49 employees have kept employment flat in recent months.
“Fake” Economic Activity
A common refrain I see in some conservative circles is that employment gains or GDP are juiced by “fake” activity, of which government spending is one and health care services are another (health care services are allegedly “fake” by virtue of being mostly government funded – at least that’s the argument I see a lot).
Did Government Employment Account for Most of September’s Employment Gains?
Business Cycle Indicators – with September Employment
The recovery continues, with a recession hard to see (even incorporating the preliminary benchmark revision without caveat). A snapshot of indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP.
In Real Time, Does a Downturn in Household Survey Employment Better Presage a Recession than One in the Establishment Survey?
Here’s the current situation:
NFP Blowout
Private nonfarm payroll employment surprises on the upside (big time): 223K vs 125K consensus (total NFP 254K vs. 147K consensus). Moreover, the previous two months’ data were revised a total of 46K. Here’s a graph of reported September and August release numbers, vs. Bloomberg consensus and my nowcast (reported yesterday).
Nowcasting Private NFP using ADP Data
My guess for private NFP:
Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment Measures Compared
ADP surprised on the upside (143K vs 124K consensus):
Dollar Share of World FX Reserves (thru Q2)
From the IMF (9/27/2024):
Whither FEMA under Trump
From Mandate for Leadership, aka Project 2025, page 135: