Deja vu all over again – China retaliates, and again soybeans are on the list.
Recession (Betting) Odds Rising
From Kalshi, 10am CT:
Spot the “Events” in this Event Study
Dow Jones:
Trade War w/Canada, Mexico
The Inversion Continues
While VIX is elevated:
Nowcasted Consumption Falls to Stall Speed
A week ago, Atlanta Fed’s nowcast of consumption was 2.2% q/q annualized; now it’s zero.
Policy Uncertainty
High frequency through 3/2:
Have Nowcasts and Forecasts Ever Dropped so Quickly When Not about to Go into a Recession?
Asking for a friend. From Atlanta Fed today:
Reinversion Continues
End of week spreads:
Recession Outlook Darkening
From betting markets, economists: