GDP, employment, manufacturing, debt, unemployment, etc.
LP Derived IRFs for Disasters on GDP
The Sensitivity of Economic Sentiment to News Sentiment, By Partisan Affiliation
How sensitive are economic sentiments as measured by the University of Michigan survey, depending upon party affiliation? Apparently, over the period of the Biden administration, it’s higher for Democrat and lean-Democrat.
Year-on-Year Change in Federal Debt to GDP or Potential GDP
Reader Bruce Hall notes the extreme jump in debt-to-GDP in 2020 was attributable in part to the public health economic lockdowns, to wit:
But the economic shutdowns certainly affected the equation’s denominator in 2020.
I note that using the counterfactual potential GDP as estimated by CBO does not change the picture substantively – I add the red line to the blue line shown in the previous post.
Business Cycle Indicators Plus Monthly GDP. And Heavy Truck Sales
Monthly GDP declines 7.1 ppts m/m annualized Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee plus monthly GDP.
Some Pictures of Federal Debt
Senatorial candidate Hovde presents this picture.
“Why dollar dominance is here to stay”
OMFIF Live broadcast, Wed 06 Mar 2024, 15:00 – 16:00 Eastern Time. Steven Kamin, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and Mark Sobel, OMFIF’s US chair, discuss their paper.
Some Cost Implications of Elevated Frequency of Extreme Events Associated with Global Climate Change
That’s climatologist/macroeconomist/epidemiologist Steven Kopits snarks that I’m worrying about having to wear shorts in Madison on Sunday, when it hit 70 degrees. Just to clarify, global climate change has real implications.
Divergence in Interest Rate Projections
CBO projection and SPF mean forecast diverge, by nearly a percentage point in 2024.
Historical Data on Temperatures in Wisconsin
A reader comments on my remarks regarding 70 degrees in Madison, yesterday:
It’s these type of sensationalist posts that don’t help educate or support/facilitate the discussion regarding climate change. It only muddies the discussion as a single day’s weather means close to nothing as it relates to climate change. A denier can easily reference the historical data which is clear that a 70 degree day doesn’t come close to even cracking the top-20 warmest March days in Madison Wisconsin’s history.