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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Real Retail Sales – Business Cycle Indicators

With industrial production, we have the following picture of series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee focuses on:

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This entry was posted on June 17, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

A Cost-Push Shock?

Oil prices jump:

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This entry was posted on June 15, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Tariffs and Consumer Prices at High Frequency

The recent undershooting of consensus CPI and PPI has been taken to mean that tariffs have not yet had an impact on prices (e.g., NYT). First, an interesting picture from Truflation:

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This entry was posted on June 15, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Slowdown? Business Cycle Indicator Data as of Mid-June

With SPGMI’s monthly GDP, we have the following picture of series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee focuses on:

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This entry was posted on June 14, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Has Trade Policy Uncertainty Decreased a Lot?

Yes, but only because it was so extremely high recently.

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This entry was posted on June 13, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Some Basic Math on Why I Think the Recession Likelihood Is Greater than 30%

Goldman Sachs has reduced the probability of recession in the next 12 months to 30%, from 35%, and earlier 45% (Reuters). It’s important to note that these projections are conditional on  the path of future policies — which in these times are less clear than ever.

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This entry was posted on June 13, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Economic Implications of “a narcissistic populist presidency”

That’s Cliff Winston’s assessment here at LSEblog:

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This entry was posted on June 13, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

P. Joyce: “Why Protecting the Congressional Budget Office Should Matter to the Congress, and to the Country”

From an article by Philip Joyce (UMD):

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This entry was posted on June 12, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Weekly Economic Index, for Data Released through 6/7

Lewis, Mertens & Stock WEI vs Baumeister, Leiva-Leon & Sims WECI:

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This entry was posted on June 12, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

[Repost] If You Thought Grocery Prices Were High, Wait for Mass Deportation

Eerie silence hangs over Central Coast farm fields in wake of ICE raids

 

[Originally posted in December 16, 2024] Wages for farm workers and food processing will likely rise, if the past is any guide.

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This entry was posted on June 12, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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