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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Measuring the Trilemma: Updated Indices

Jérémie Cohen-Setton has a nice review of the recent blog-literature regarding the trilemma on Bruegel:

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This entry was posted on October 7, 2013 by Menzie Chinn.

Don’t Eat the Shrimp!

(Update 10/8, 9PM)

Or think twice … thanks to the government closure.

From GovExec, “90 Percent of Seafood Imports Go Uninspected Due to Shutdown”:

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This entry was posted on October 7, 2013 by Menzie Chinn.

Making money from the Eagle Ford Shale

Newly exploited tight oil formations account for more than 100% of the increase in U.S. field production of crude oil since 2005. But that doesn’t mean it’s easy to make money getting oil out of the ground this way.

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This entry was posted on October 6, 2013 by James_Hamilton.

Estimated Macro Impacts of the Shutdown

(Updated 10/6)

Four business days into the shutdown, and we have already exceeded in length 90% of the government-wide shutdowns that have occurred. What is the macro impact? In an accounting sense, by end-of-Monday, the impact should be to shave off 0.2 ppts of 2013Q4 q/q annualized growth.

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This entry was posted on October 4, 2013 by Menzie Chinn.

The September Employment Situation

[This empty webpage brought to you courtesy of the House of Representatives]

This entry was posted on October 3, 2013 by Menzie Chinn.

Debt Ceiling Watch (III)

Lots of pooh-poohing of the implications of a debt-ceiling crisis. It’s instructive to examine what happened to equity markets when we last came close to a breach, but the Government didn’t actually default.

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This entry was posted on October 2, 2013 by Menzie Chinn.

Debt Ceiling Watch (II): October 2

From Alec Phillips/Goldman Sachs today (not online):

…the Treasury bill market is clearly indicating concern about upcoming debt ceiling deadlines …

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This entry was posted on October 2, 2013 by Menzie Chinn.

Policy Uncertainty: October 1, 2013

A snapshot for those who argue that policy uncertainty is slowing down the economy.

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This entry was posted on October 1, 2013 by Menzie Chinn.

Who’s afraid of the big bad taper?

Those of us who believed that the Fed’s program of large-scale asset purchases had only a modest effect on long-term interest rates seem to have some explaining to do.

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This entry was posted on September 29, 2013 by James_Hamilton.

Time to Prepare for Government Closure

The House is preparing to vote on a CR that incorporates a one year delay in implementation of Affordable Care Act (aka “Obamacare”). [1] This outcome almost assuredly guarantees a government shutdown. [2]

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This entry was posted on September 28, 2013 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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