The House is preparing to vote on a CR that incorporates a one year delay in implementation of Affordable Care Act (aka “Obamacare”). [1] This outcome almost assuredly guarantees a government shutdown. [2]
Debt Ceiling Watch
From WSJ, a picture of rising risk perception surrounding a debt ceiling crisis:
Wisconsin’s Governor Walker Touts Alternate Employment Series
Makes little impact on trend relative to promise, and relative to the Nation
The Absolute Funniest Thing I Have Read This Year
From Ed (We Are Not in a Recession) Lazear and Keith Hennessey, “Bush ended financial crisis before Obama took office — three important truths about 2008”, FoxNews (9/16):
Ironies Abound: Destroying the Village to Save It
I find it strange that self-avowed patriotic Americans are willing to shut down the government, breach the debt ceiling, and throw the world economy into tumult, when those same self-avowed patriots have been asserting that policy uncertainty has slowed down the economy. Let’s stipulate for the sake of argument policy uncertainty has been an important determinant of slow growth [0]; when do we see the spikes in policy uncertainty?
Some Selected State and National Employment Indicators
The BLS released today estimates for August state employment. In Figure 1 below, I show US, Wisconsin, Minnesota and California private nonfarm payroll employment figures, normalized to January 2011, when the governors of the three states took office.
GDP Growth and the Change in the Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance
Countries that increase the structural budget balance the most have experienced the slowest growth. Here is the scatter plot for the 2008-2012 period.
Lehman Plus Five
US, Euro area, and UK GDP Trajectories Compared, and the Expansionary Fiscal Contraction Hypothesis
Summers withdraws
Harvard Professor Larry Summers yesterday requested that his name be withdrawn from consideration for next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Let me outsource to a few others for comments.
The peak in world oil production is yet to come
World oil production stagnated between 2005 and 2007, which given rapid growth in demand from emerging economies sent oil prices shooting up. Some observers suggested that production might never rise much above the levels seen in 2005. Among those who raised this possibility, two of the more thoughtful have changed their mind. Euan Mearns last month summarized what he saw as three (or four) nails in the coffin of peak oil. And Stuart Staniford, an early editor and contributor for the Oil Drum, declared a few weeks ago that the data have spoken.