FT Alphaville on crude oil and the eurozone crisis.
“http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2012/01/evaluating-recession-forecasts.html”>Jeff Miller does not buy into recent forecasts of a U.S. recession. On a related note, Bonddad deconstructs the ECRI Weekly Leading Index.
VoxEu notes the systematic international tendency for official deficit figures to understate the magnitude of the change in public debt.
Liberty Street Economics on forecasting with internet search data.
Indicators via representation at the Allied Social Sciences Association meetings.
Chinese inflation is decelerating [0]. This suggests that whatever further real CNY appreciation occurs is likely arise from nominal appreciation, over the near term.
MIT Professor Christopher Knittel has a new paper on the potential for the United States to reduce petroleum consumption.
As Governor Walker begins a tour of the state to tout a new jobs plan [0], it might be useful to review economic conditions in Wisconsin. Briefly put, Wisconsin employment (total, private) continues to decline, and Wisconsin’s coincident indicator continues to diverge from the US indicator (as well as most other of the region’s indicators). Hence, points made in previous posts [1] [2] still seem applicable.
I organized the International Economics and Finance Society panel on “Financial Integration and Global Rebalancing” at the
Allied Social Sciences Association meetings in Chicago. In the end, the papers fit together much better than I had anticipated; they all dealt with with the factors driving the puzzling pattern of current account balances — and how policy can possibly influence those patterns.
The latest U.S. economic indicators have taken a favorable turn.
For those of you attending the Allied Social Sciences Association (and AEA) meetings in Chicago, January 6-8, I’ll be at the W.W. Norton booth in the exhibition hall, Friday afternoon, particularly 5PM onward, ready to talk about Lost Decades: The Making of America’s Debt Crisis and the Long Recovery.
In my previous post, I cited Jeff Frieden’s and my proposal for a conditional inflation target. Yet, according to several observers, we are either on the brink of crowding out due to elevated government deficits [0], or high to hyperinflation, due to monetary base expansion [1]. As has been noted, none of these outcomes have yet materialized, despite months of such warnings. [2] [3] Here, I wanted to evaluate where market expectations stand on these views.