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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Choi, Dang, Kirpalani, Perez on “Exorbitant privilege and the sustainability of US public debt”

From the paper abstract:

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This entry was posted on September 9, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

When Did the Debt-to-GDP Ratio Jump in the Last Decade?

Federal debt held by the public as a share of GDP:

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This entry was posted on September 8, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Reminder: Wisconsin Exports under Trump

If you forgot what the trade landscape looked like — and how Trump’s policies impacted Wisconsin — here’s a picture of Wisconsin real exports during and after (was thinking about this, prepping for WisconsinEye show tomorrow, where Mike Knetter will be talking).

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This entry was posted on September 8, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

GDP Nowcasts: Continued Growth into Q3

We have plenty of competing assessments as of today. From three Federal Reserve Banks and Goldman Sachs.

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This entry was posted on September 8, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

EJ Antoni/Heritage on What Unemployment Rate We Should Be Looking At

EJ Antoni/Heritage writes alarmingly about how excluding marginally attached workers from the calculation of unemployment is misleading:

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This entry was posted on September 7, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Kudlow: “We Are in the Front End of a Recession”

Audio here, at 2:30 approximately. He also says private NFP gain is down to +56K, while private ex-health care and social services (all essentially government), was only up +12K. Here’s the picture I get looking at current vintage/latest release:

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This entry was posted on September 7, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

The Ito-McCauley Database on Individual Central Bank Reserve Holdings

Hiro Ito and Robert McCauley have compiled a dataset(first discussed in this 2019 working paper) of the currency composition of international reserves over the 1999-2021 period. This dataset was used in Ito and McCauley (2020), Chinn, Ito and McCauley (2022), and Chinn, Ito and Frankel (2024).

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This entry was posted on September 6, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Goldman Sachs on the Post-Election Economy

From  Alec Phillips, David Mericle and Tim Krupa (Goldman Sachs, 3 September 2024):

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This entry was posted on September 6, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators and the Employment Release

Employment growth is slowing. Even taking the preliminary benchmark at face value, we’re not in recession as of mid-August (when the survey is taken).

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This entry was posted on September 6, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Employment Slowdown in Context

NFP +142 vs. consensus +166. Employment has almost surely slowed (keeping in mind this is the preliminary release). What does this look like?

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This entry was posted on September 6, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Trade Policy Uncertainty before July 9
  • Manufacturing Employment, Hours Down
  • Central Bank Gold Holdings
  • Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers Nowcasts Decelerate
  • Business Cycle Indicators – June Employment Release and May Monthly GDP

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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