Conventional and Instantaneous
Futures vs. SEP on the Fed Funds Rate Trajectory
Here’s a picture of the Fed funds pre- and post-CPI release/FOMC SEP:
FT-Booth School and FOMC GDP Forecasts
The survey indicates 2.0% median growth q4/q4, not far from June SEP at 2.1% (unchanged from March).
Year-on-Year and Instantaneous Inflation in May; Food Prices Declining
Headline and core surprise on the downside: m/m 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus, and 0.0% vs 0.1% consensus, respectively. More interestingly, Cleveland Fed core CPI nowcast for May m/m was 0.30%, actual was 0.16%.
GDP, GDO, GDP+
All have a positive gradient in Q1.
On the Recession Indicator Watch: Retail Sales
Out of curiosity, I peruse the web to see who is still saying a recession is coming (with an open mind). This tweet suggests retail sales are the indicator de jour:
Donald Trump on Electric Ships/Boats
From a speech at Las Vegas (source: Newsweek):
“Do Foreign Yield Curves Predict U.S. Recessions and GDP Growth?”
Yes! From Rashed Ahmed and Menzie Chinn, just published in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
“Why the Recession Still Isn’t Here”
That’s the title of a Timiraos/WSJ article three days ago:
Six Measures of Employment over the Past Year
CES measures indicate faster growth than others.