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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

A Known Known: Which Presidential Proposals Would Be Implemented

Apologies to Donald Rumsfeld. There is some uncertainty regarding what parts of presidential proposals will be implemented, especially in light of the necessity for Congressional approval. However, one area where legislative approval is not required: tariffs

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This entry was posted on September 10, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

How’s Wisconsin Employment Doing?

July was down, and we won’t have August numbers until September 20th (maybe a day earlier from DWD). Using official nationwide nonfarm payroll employment, Wisconsin employment is growing.

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This entry was posted on September 10, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Nowcasts – Updated

GDPNow Q3 growth nowcast now up to 2.5%, from 2.1%.

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This entry was posted on September 9, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

If You *Really* Are Worried about Federal Debt Accumulation…

Consider this graph (based on Penn Wharton Budget Model scoring, from the Economist):

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This entry was posted on September 9, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Choi, Dang, Kirpalani, Perez on “Exorbitant privilege and the sustainability of US public debt”

From the paper abstract:

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This entry was posted on September 9, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

When Did the Debt-to-GDP Ratio Jump in the Last Decade?

Federal debt held by the public as a share of GDP:

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This entry was posted on September 8, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Reminder: Wisconsin Exports under Trump

If you forgot what the trade landscape looked like — and how Trump’s policies impacted Wisconsin — here’s a picture of Wisconsin real exports during and after (was thinking about this, prepping for WisconsinEye show tomorrow, where Mike Knetter will be talking).

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This entry was posted on September 8, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

GDP Nowcasts: Continued Growth into Q3

We have plenty of competing assessments as of today. From three Federal Reserve Banks and Goldman Sachs.

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This entry was posted on September 8, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

EJ Antoni/Heritage on What Unemployment Rate We Should Be Looking At

EJ Antoni/Heritage writes alarmingly about how excluding marginally attached workers from the calculation of unemployment is misleading:

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This entry was posted on September 7, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Kudlow: “We Are in the Front End of a Recession”

Audio here, at 2:30 approximately. He also says private NFP gain is down to +56K, while private ex-health care and social services (all essentially government), was only up +12K. Here’s the picture I get looking at current vintage/latest release:

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This entry was posted on September 7, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

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  • Gold and FX Reserves in 2025Q1
  • Core Inflation Nowcasted to Rise in June, July

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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