Answers: No. No. No.
Analyses on the Impacts of Trump’s Proposed Ultimate Solution
Given the results of the election, and Mr. Trump’s statement that deportations will start immediately, there will be a need for facts. I recommend EconoFact’s Immigration page as a start for your analysis.
The Recession Call Revisited
There was a noisy minority of analysts thinking we were in, or imminently in, recession (see a list here). It’ll be interesting to see how those views are revised. However, as I noted, while the data was not supportive of being in a recession as of October, three possibilities could reconcile observations with such views: (1) the model is wrong, (2) the recession is here, but we don’t know it, or (3) the recession is still to come.
“The Recession of 2025 Will Be Backdated” to 2022
Debt-to-GDP under Trump 1.0
A reminder, so when next you hear about fiscal restraint.
Inflation Breakevens, Term Spreads Up pre-FOMC
As of yesterday COB:
Everyday Price Inflation at 0.3% y/y?
Versus 2.4% for the CPI (in logs). Lots of people think the government’s statistics understates the true inflation rate. It used to be John Williams at ShadowStats. Now it’s EJ Antoni at Heritage Foundation (who touts the use of Primerica’s everyday price index). But the American Institute for Economic Research’s “Everyday Price Index” (EPI) says otherwise (over the past year and a half).
Some Last Pictures: Trade War 2.0
Farmers of the Nation, Unite! You Have Nothing to Lose but Possible Retaliation against Soybeans and Corn
From the National Corn Growers Association:
U.S. soybeans and corn are prime targets for tariffs. As the top two export commodities for our country, together they account for about one-fourth of total U.S. agricultural export value. As such, a repeated tariff-based approach to addressing trade with China places a target on both U.S. soybeans and corn. Farmers and rural economies pay the price as a result.
Recession after the Election?
Charles Payne joins the recession camp.