With the PPI release, and Cleveland Fed PCE nowcast as of today:
Mackintosh/WSJ: “A Recession Signal Is Flashing Red. Or Is It?”
Article today on whether it matters if dis-inversion occurs because short rates fall, or long rates rise.
SIX Five Measures of Instantaneous Core Inflation
With August CPI release, we have core, chained core, supercore, and services supercore (via P. Skrzypczynski). PPI comes tomorrow.
The Net Petroleum Balance
In real dollars:
Gasoline Prices Down…
As recorded by EIA.
High Frequency Prices in Presidential Prediction Markets
From PredictIt, just one hour into the debate:
On WisconsinEye: “The Economy on the Campaign Trail”
Mike Knetter and I joined Lisa Pugh for a conversation yesterday about the economy and the election. Here’s the video:
Betting on Recession? Literally…
A Known Known: Which Presidential Proposals Would Be Implemented
Apologies to Donald Rumsfeld. There is some uncertainty regarding what parts of presidential proposals will be implemented, especially in light of the necessity for Congressional approval. However, one area where legislative approval is not required: tariffs
How’s Wisconsin Employment Doing?
July was down, and we won’t have August numbers until September 20th (maybe a day earlier from DWD). Using official nationwide nonfarm payroll employment, Wisconsin employment is growing.