In glancing at Table 4 the last issue of the Economist (sub. req.), I was surprised that so many countries had downward sloping yield curves. Should we worry?
Inferring market expectations from changes in fed funds futures prices
I recently completed a new research paper studying how interest rates of different maturities change with market expectations of what the Fed is going to do next.
IMF World Economic Outlook on Managing Large Capital Inflows
The IMF has just released several chapters of its semi-annual World Economic Outlook. One chapter is entitled “Managing Large Capital Inflows”.
Speculation and fundamentals in oil prices
Knzn asks about the significance of the shift from contango to backwardation in the term structure of crude oil futures. I think one thing it signifies it that some OPEC spokesmen are simply blowing smoke.
What’s a “Strong Dollar”?
I used to wonder about the use of this term a lot, at least in the context of government pronouncements. Here’s my answer. First, the use of the term in context. From Bloomberg:
Weak Dollar Boosts Growth Without Fueling Inflation (Update1)By Matthew Benjamin and Vivien Lou Chen
Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, whose signature appears on every new dollar bill, may find the weak currency with his name on it helps the U.S. economy more than the strong one he publicly endorses.
Does a recession matter?
That’s the question posed yesterday by Calculated Risk. Here’s how I’d answer it.
Employment plunge was a big oops
As many of us were anticipating, today’s employment data released by the BLS showed substantially stronger job growth for September.
Bush Era Consumer and Occupational Safety Budgets and Trade Anxiety
I noted in a previous post the decline in resources devoted to monitoring the safety of products in previous years, contributing to perceived gaps in consumer safety, and hence resistance to international trade.
Not all the news is bad
We’ve been dwelling here quite a bit on the bleak incoming housing data. But I have to admit that I’m not seeing that spilling over so far into some of the other key economic indicators.
The Stock Market and Real GDP
With the recent surge in stock prices, some analysts believe that the probability of recession is receding.