The Analytical Perspectives of the FY2010 budget have been released. Imbedded in the document are the Administration’s new forecasts placed in the context of newer forecasts from CBO and Blue Chip [text added 12:30] (see the Chapter on Economic Assumptions). They have also provided some insights into the sensitivity of the budget outlook to specific alternate economic scenarios (not something I recall the previous Administration doing, but I might be wrong), as well as coefficients of revenue and expenditure sensitivities (something done in previous Analytical Perspectives).
Inflation and relative prices
There are persuasive reasons why we’d be better off today with an inflation rate higher than what we’ve seen over the last six months. But while a uniform expansion that raised all wages and prices by the same amount would be helpful, what the Fed could actually achieve in the present situation may be something less desirable.
Three Pictures from the April Employment Situation
Revisions are downward (but getting smaller over time), the growth rate becomes less negative, but hours continue to decline rapidly.
This shoot is definitely growing bigger and greener
The Labor Department reported today that seasonally adjusted new claims for unemployment insurance fell by 34,000 to 601,000 for the most recent available week, resulting in a reduction of the 4-week average for this series for the fourth consecutive week in a row.
The Emerging Global Financial Architecture
Events, particularly these days, tend to outrun the best laid plans to anticipate research trends. And it might seem that this was true in the case of this conference, sponsored by UCSC’s Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, the Journal of International Money and Finance, and the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The conference was planned last year, at a time when most academic researchers were aware and concerned about the incipient economic slowdown, and whether the major economies would “de-couple”, and in turn how these factors would impact the constellation of global imbalances.
What Does the Collapse of US Imports and Exports Signify?
The Collapse in Relation to GDP
In an earlier post, I discussed the startling decline in US imports [0]. Brad Setser has also reported on this phenomenon. This decline is not restricted to the United States, as noted in an OECD report released last week (h/t Torsten Slok):
Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Index
Dow Jones has begun publication of a new Economic Sentiment Index, which is based on a text mining analysis of five million news articles referencing the U.S. economy since 1990, rating words such as “recession” and “depression” as negative and “recovery” and “rebound” as positive.
Auto woes open a new chapter
April sales of light vehicles manufactured in North America were down by about a third from the values seen a year ago. And a year ago we were already seeing recession-level values for auto sales.
Some Reflections on CEA Chair Christina Romer’s JEC Testimony
This is a slightly revised version of a piece that appeared on the Washington Post’s The Hearing today.
In her testimony before the Joint Economic Committee today, Dr. Romer, Chair of the CEA, presented an explication of the progress of the financial crisis and the economic downturn, the anticipated effects of the measures undertaken and planned, and the outlook going forward. On most points, we’re in agreement, so I’ll only highlight some key issues of interest.
Further progress for initial claims for unemployment insurance
The Labor Department reported today that initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 14,000 during the most recent available week. That brings the 4-week average down for the third consecutive week and puts it 3.3% below the peak reached April 9.