If you went no further than noticing that the q/q annualized growth rate of -0.3% was faster than the -0.5 in the Bloomberg consensus, you might have taken this as good news. I’m not going to say it wasn’t good news (relatively speaking), although negative growth makes the case for recession pretty good according to Jeff Frankel (who is on the NBER BCDC); see also RealTime Economics. However, there are some pretty interesting things that merit additional discussion.
Real GDP fell slightly in 2008:Q3
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP fell at a 0.3% annual rate in the third quarter of 2008. That’s the second quarter of negative real GDP growth out of the last four, and puts the cumulative annual growth since 2007:Q3 at an anemic 0.8%.
Deflation risk
There are plenty of things to worry about in the current economic situation. But deflation isn’t one of them.
Pocketful of Multipliers (II): Options for Stimulus Packages
As the debate over the nature and size of a stimulus package wends its way through the Congress [0], [1], [2], I thought it would be useful to bring numbers into the debate, especially as we are considering fiscal stimulus in a time when the Bush Administration has constrained, by dint of previous profligacy, our options. In particular, I want to return to the issue of multipliers, discussed in nearly a year ago. Here, I want to provide a little more specificity, regarding the impact depending upon the type of outlays.
Further rate cuts needed
The Fed will probably vote for another 50-basis-point cut in the fed funds rate this week, bringing its target down to 1%. Here’s why I think that would be a good idea.
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet
On Thursday, the Federal Reserve issued its weekly H.4.1 report, which provides details of the Fed’s balance sheet. Once upon a time, this was one of the least interesting of the government’s many releases of data. These days, it’s become one of the most exciting.
Yikes! Euro Area Edition
From the FT today:
Survey underlines grim outlook for eurozone
By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt, Published: October 24 2008 11:23 | Last updated: October 24 2008 18:37The eurozone economy contracted sharply in October as the global bank crisis slammed the brakes on business activity and blackened the outlook for the 15-country region, a closely watched survey indicated on Friday.
Middle Kingdom Malaise? The Latest Chinese GDP Figures
Monday’s announcement that Chinese growth was decelerating was not surprising; that it decelerated to below the consensus of 9.7% growth to 9% (y/y) in 2008Q3 was a surprise. This was reflected in the headlines: “China growth rate slows sharply” (FT), “China less likely to buffer world crisis as its economy slows” (LA Times), “China’s economy feels chill from global crisis” (AP). For detailed numbers, see Haver.
Brief questions and answers on the fiscal stimulus
No time to post much today, so I’ll just pass along an interesting question and brief answer from the Econbrowser mail room.
CRA and Fannie and Freddie as betes noire
There is so much chaff floating around about the roles of Fannie and Freddie and of the Community Reinvestment Act in the current crisis, despite the best efforts of economists like Jim Hamilton [0] [1], Mark Thoma and Janet Yellen, that it seems worthwhile to once again go through some of the arguments that have been forwarded.
From David Goldstein and Kevin G. Hall, “Private sector loans, not Fannie or Freddie, triggered crisis”:
Federal Reserve Board data show that:
- More than 84 percent of the subprime mortgages in 2006 were issued by private lending institutions.
- Private firms made nearly 83 percent of the subprime loans to low- and moderate-income borrowers that year.
- Only one of the top 25 subprime lenders in 2006 was directly subject to the housing law that’s being lambasted by conservative critics. Continue reading