I don’t have a resolution to the debate, but I have an insight, regarding per capita series (which is different from aggregate statistics used to determine a recession), summarized in a couple graphs.
Stablecoins As a Rorschach Test
I haven’t been following the development of stablecoins, both before and after the signing into law of the so-called “GENIUS Act”, so I found this paper a must-read: “Stablecoins: A Revolutionary Payment Technology with Financial Risks”, by Rashad Ahmed, James A. Clouse, Fabio Natalucci, Alessandro Rebucci & Geyue Sun, NBER Working Paper No 34475. [ungated version]
SecTrsy Bessent: “The American people don’t know how good they have it.”
Trump’s Economic Team – cont’d
Guest Contribution: “How Geopolitical Tensions Could Shape France’s Inflation Outlook”
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of Economics at Skema Business School, Paris and Chair of the French Business Cycle Dating Committee), and Jamel Saadaoui (Professor at University of Paris 8 – LED).
Instantaneous PCE Core Inflation at 2.6%
Compare to 2.8% y/y, 2.7% q/q AR.
Confidence Down in November, (preliminary) Sentiment (Slightly) Up in December
U.Mich on December, Gallup on November:
Business Cycle Indicators: Series at or Below Prior Peak
With September personal income and spending, we have new insights into whether we’re close or after the business cycle peak.
Deceleration in Nowcasted Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers, GDP [Updated]
National Security Tariffs (Sec 232) on Toilet Paper?
Not literally, but on wood pulp used for TP? Implicitly, SecTreas Bessent is suggesting that if the IEEPA tariffs are struck down by the Supreme Court.
“We can recreate the exact tariff structure with 301s, with 232s, with the—I think they’re called 122s,” he said, referring to three separate statutory authorities governing trade actions.