Here’re the July PPI and CPI for coffee.
WSJ Op-Ed on Implications of EJ Antoni’s Views on Inflation
From Bunn and Pomerleau/Tax Foundation, “Will E.J. Antoni Raise Your Taxes?”:
Every year the IRS adjusts more than a dozen tax thresholds to account for inflation, a process called indexing. In 2020 the 10% tax bracket applied to income up to $9,875 for single individuals and $19,750 for married couples. Thanks to inflation indexing, those thresholds are now $11,925 and $23,850, respectively.
…
PPI => CPI?
With the outsized jump in the PPI, the natural question to ask is whether this implies a jump in the CPI. The evidence is mixed in terms of the aggregate PPI and the aggregate CPI, as noted in this post. More recent analyses suggest the PPI contains predictive power.
What’s the Defense for Antoni’s Nomination?
Exactly that he doesn’t have citations! From Daily Signal:
President Donald Trump was right to fire BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, a Biden appointee, for these mistakes, even if they were the result of systemic flaws, not partisanship. Antoni, whom Trump nominated as her replacement on Monday, can restore integrity and precision to our most critical economic data agency.
…
Wisconsin under Trump Trade War 2.0
Manufacturing employment, exports declines. Employment release from DWD today.
A Man Who Believes We’ve Been in Recession since 2022 Is Still Odds on Favorite for BLS Commissioner
It’s really a statement on our times.
Michigan Survey: Sentiment Down, Inflation Expectations Up
Preliminary readings for August. Not particularly good.
Business Cycle Indicators – Industrial Production, Retail Sales
The picture as of today’s releases, with IP, retail sales below consensus.
Instantaneous Core Inflation
Shocker in PPI: 0.9% vs. 0.2% m/m consensus:
Business Cycle Indicators w/Monthly GDP
SP Global’s monthly GDP series is up (with prediction of flat GDP in Q3):