The Conference Board’s Confidence Index at 91.8, up from downwardly revised 91.0 in February, beating Bloomberg consensus of 88.
Guest Contribution: “Oil Shocks Raise Recession Odds and Inflation Risks”
Today we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Rashad Ahmed (Andersen Institute for Finance and Economics). The views presented are solely those of the author. A version of this article was posted at ARC blog.
How Much Will Reported Confidence Decline in March?
The Conference Board estimate of consumer confidence comes out tomorrow. Here’s some guesses on how bad it’ll be.
113 Years of the Real Oil Price (WTI)
Tyler Godspeed (former acting CEA Chair Trump 1.0; chief economist ExxonMobil) observes that shocks as determinants of recessions means they are essentially unpredictable.
Brent: Closing in on Post-Strike Highs
From Barchart, 9:30pm CT:
S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratios
From Yardeni:
Federal Budget, Economic Report of the President, 2026 Coming Out April 3
According to Politico, if you were wondering when the budget was coming out. The budget should have come out February 2nd.
What’s the Plan?
I see currently betting on US troops in Iran by April 30th at 70% (a high of 72% earlier today), with betting on maximum oil price in 2026 of $145/bbl.
Five Year US Treasury CDS
In case you were wondering:
“Geopolitics becoming ‘key risk’ for central banks – panel”
Central Banking news account from the conference The ECB and Its Watchers, on Wednesday: