Central Banking news account from the conference The ECB and Its Watchers, on Wednesday:
Sentiment Dives to Near “Liberation Day” Levels
Final U.Michigan sentiment at 53.3, down from preliminary 55.5 reading. Expectations down 2.4 pts from preliminary.
The Administration Campaign to Push Down the Fed Funds Rate: “Computer Says ‘No'”
The Year (and 2 months) of Living Dangerously
Economic Policy Uncertainty (US, Global), Trade Policy Uncertainty, GeoPolitical Risk, Stock Market, and (now) Oil Volatility all enhanced from January 2025 onward. Coincidence?
Random Question: How Many People Won as the US/Europeans in this Game?
“Oil War” – seize the oil fields before they’re blown up.
“The ECB and Its Watchers XXVI”
Today, at Goethe University, from the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability:
Naval Deployment as of March 23
From USNI.
Dollar Dominance in Central Bank Reserves
Talking about the dollar, Trump, and stupidity as an exogenous variable, next couple of days…
Guest Contribution: “Is Immigration Bad for America?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published in Project Syndicate. Thanks are due Sohaib Nasim.
Nowcasts and Forecasts
Nowcasts are typically below pre-war forecasts.