Following up on Jim’s post yesterday, here are some additional thoughts on the “initial” (consolidated advance and 2nd) release: (1) GDP far exceeds nowcasts, (2) potentially more momentum-relevant “core GDP” advances strongly, but much less so than GDP, and (3) alternative estimates of economic activity like GDO suggest slower growth.
Good news from the GDP report
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter. That is somewhat higher than both the historical average growth and the value anticipated by many forecasters.
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Fed Governor/CEA Chair (on leave) Miran: “Fed Risks Recession Without More Interest Rate Cuts”
From Bloomberg:
On the Eve of the GDP Release: Forecasts, Nowcasts, Tracking
A survey:
Chief Economist and Now Actg Director, Ctr Data Analysis, Heritage; & Chief Economist, Truflation
That’s EJ Antoni, who has not a single peer-reviewed paper.
How’s Sector Employment Doing during This Promised Manufacturing “Golden Age”
A compilation:
The Man Who Would Be Commissioner* [corrected**]
Of the BLS, that is. From EJ Antoni writing in Heritage, “Why the Labor Market Is Stronger Than Experts Think”:
Republican Sentiment: “The Sun’ll Come Out, Tomorrow”
From the December U.Michigan Survey of Consumers:
Mysteries of the CPI Release
Numerous commentators have noted anomalies in the latest CPI release. Smith/Bloomberg quotes
“Lost in Translation,” according to TD Securities. “Delayed and Patchy,” per William Blair, and a “Swiss Cheese CPI report” from EY-Parthenon.
In contrast, the downside surprise was hailed by credulous NEC Director Kevin Hassett as “astonishingly good”.
A Conjectured Sahm Index for November [corrected]
The November unemployment rate came in at 4.6% v. 4.5% Bloomberg consensus. What does the Sahm rule say about whether we’re in a recession or not? Nothing, as we don’t have an October reading (thanks to the wisdom of OMB declaring BLS employees non-essential).