“How energy prices figure into the Fed’s interest rate decisions”

From MarketPlace today with Justin Ho, Claudia Sahm and I comment.

Grocery Prices Continue to Rise

And are rising faster than in the last year under Biden.

Brent approaches $100/bbl again, volatility keeps on rising, and Straits open end-April less than eve-odds.

Source: BBC.

We have alternative readings on employment, compared to CES series.

EPU, VIX and GPR:

From EJ Antoni (first published two weeks ago):

Using NYMEX futures for May, June:

Polymarket, using definition of 2 quarters of consecutive negative GDP growth OR NBER declaration.

NYMEX:

In the wake of Trump’s musings, from Polymarket: