Perhaps someone can tell me why we get such different bets depending on platform (and why doesn’t RealClearPolitics include PredictIt)?
Decomposing the Revision to GDO
One of the interesting aspects of the annual revision is that, contrary to what happens with typical (non-annual) revisions, GDI moved toward GDP, rather than the reverse.
Per Capita Growth under Trump vs. Biden
Growth in the first three years of Biden was 3.0%, vs 2.1% under Trump (pre-pandemic).
Lessons in Why We Don’t Judge Recessions on the Basis of GDP
Nowcasting Wisconsin GDP
Suppose it’s the end of August, and one want to get the best estimate of Wisconsin real GDP for Q2. As of August, only Q1 Wisconsin GDP is available. What’s the best guess of of Q2 GDP, keeping in mind the number of monthly indicators at the state level is much lower than that for the Nation. Here’s my tentative answer.
Diffusion Indexes for August
CFNAI and state-level coincident indices suggest softening in activity.
The Low Consumer Sentiment/Confidence Puzzle Resolved?
In the past few years, a persistently low level of consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, Conference Board, or Gallup surveys, relative to conventional economic measures has puzzled analysts, including this one [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]. This puzzle is illustrated by the evolution of the U. Michigan series (FRED series UMCSENT), and the fitted values using 2011M01-2024M08 data on unemployment and year-on-year inflation.
Guest Contribution: “Latin America’s Non-Linear Monetary Response to Pandemic Inflation”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Steven Kamin (AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.
A Fiscal “Do You Feel Lucky?” Part II
Previous counts put Trump fiscal promises at (at least) $4 trillion over ten years, compared to Harris $1.7 trillion (or Economist $3 trillion vs $1.4 trillion). Now, let’s place Trump tax cuts at a cost of $11 trillion…From “Trump Dangles So Many Tax Breaks Even Some Advisers Are Confused,” Bloomberg:
Chinn and Irwin: “International Economics” (f’coming Cambridge Univ Press)
Are you teaching international economics next spring? Or just want to learn more about the field? Consider adopting/purchasing this new textbook, by myself and Douglas Irwin (available around December 2024, from Cambridge University Press).