Catching up with the news overseas, China downside surprise:
June Temperature Anomaly
For one month, trailing 12 months:
Industrial, Manufacturing Production and Business Cycle Indicators
Along with GDPNow. Industrial production under consensus (+0.1% m/m ov +0.2% Bloomberg consensus), while manufacturing is flat (+0.0% vs. +0.1% consensus).
Kim Ruhl: “Rethinking Free Trade”
That’s the title of an opinion piece in Finance and Development by former CEA member (2025-26) and UW Madison economics professor Kim Ruhl:
Retail Sales Rebound Continue to Rise
According to data released today; here are alternative business cycle indicators:
PPI and CPI, Again
On Monday, Justin Ho on Marketplace had a piece on producer prices. He covered several interesting questions, including the implications of a PPI rising faster than the CPI:
Monthly GDP Drops for Two Consecutive Months
S&P Global Markets Insights monthly GDP (formerly IHS, Macroeconomic Advisers) online today. Here is monthly GDP againnst other NBER BCDC measures:
Ordinary Folk Stats in June: Cost-of-Living, Groceries, Utilities
Real wages down from February,
CPI Release and PCE Nowcasts
Inflation down, below consensus, but we’re still above pre-War trend:
How Much Is the Stock Market Boom Fueling Consumption?
In 2025, about half of observed consumption, according to Bigot and Espic (BdF):