Kalshi has the shutdown lasting 29.4 days as of now, was up to 31.1 days earlier.
Scary Picture?
Prepping for my lecture on Monday, I plotted this graph of the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) ratio against the 10 year Treasury yield.
Sentiment Mired at Global Financial Crisis Levels
With today’s release of University of Michigan Survey of Consumers (preliminary) data, we have this picture.
Divergence in Employment Growth, by Firm Size
Beware the aggregates. The slowdown is showing up in smaller firms first, according to BLS Business Employment Dynamics data.
Big Data on Trump’s War on Consumers
Agricultural Exports through August
Down from January:
Not So Great Expectations: Farm Edition
The Administration is mulling a $10-14 billion bailout package for ag producers, with emphasis on soybean farmers (deja vu!). Farmer sentiment is pretty low relative to the exuberance note in the aftermath of Trump’s election, as this Purdue/CME survey released today shows:
What If the Supreme Court Strikes down the IEEPA Tariffs
A lot of money is at stake. Would CBP be able to refund the monies collected (using millions of paper checks…)?
An Interesting Correlation: Heavy Truck Sales Growth as Recession Indicator
Following up on the drop in heavy truck sales in August, here’s the prediction from a simple probit of recession (NBER peak-to-trough) on current 12 month heavy truck sales growth: