Some Numbers for SecTreas Bessent for Benefit Risk Assessment

In consideration of tanker escorts, some ballpark figures.

Betting on Recession 2026: Up to 32% fm 21% pre-War

But down from peak 37%. From Polymarket:

From MarketPlace today with Justin Ho, Claudia Sahm and I comment.

And are rising faster than in the last year under Biden.

Brent approaches $100/bbl again, volatility keeps on rising, and Straits open end-April less than eve-odds.

Source: BBC.

We have alternative readings on employment, compared to CES series.

EPU, VIX and GPR:

From EJ Antoni (first published two weeks ago):

Using NYMEX futures for May, June:

Polymarket, using definition of 2 quarters of consecutive negative GDP growth OR NBER declaration.