A little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing. How does extending the debate beyond Econ 101 levels of analysis change the nature of the debate?
Employment remains solid
This week’s employment data do not show an economy in recession.
Compensation Catch-up Postponed
The Administration has been lauding the acceleration in compensation growth. Newly revised figures indicate that the rejoicing was premature, as Q2 real compensation growth was revised downward.
November auto sales
November U.S. light vehicle sales were 2.8% higher than last year. Sounds good, until you take a closer look.
China: Over-investment or not
There’s been a debate whether investment rates in China are sustainable or not.
The yield curve and foreign purchases of U.S. debt
A few weeks ago I discussed some new research that suggests that the current negative spread between long-term and short-term yields may be a little less worrisome than earlier studies had led us to conclude, to the extent that the negative spread in part results from an unusually low term premium on U.S. bonds rather than an expectation of future declines in short-term yields. One factor that may be depressing that term premium is foreign holdings of U.S. securities.
Home sales down further
Data on October new home sales released yesterday by the Census Bureau suggest that I may be proved to have been wrong in thinking that new home sales had already hit bottom.
Downshifting and Reversion in Forecasts
My post on CEA’s forecast discussed the similarity between the Administration’s forecast and the Society of Professional Forecasters forecast. What can we learn from recent SPF forecasts, in the wake of decelerating growth.
Housing: speculative bubble or fundamentals?
Caclulated Risk had some interesting observations this week about why forecasts for housing differ so widely across analysts.
Will the Dollar Plunge? Would that Be So Bad?
Yesterday’s dollar plunge unnerved markets. What’s the likelihood of a sustained, drastic decline?