Where are expenditure rates now? Where might they go?
The term premium and reduced volatility
I earlier discussed the role that foreign government purchases of U.S. Treasury securities may have played in reducing long-term bond yields. A study by Fed researchers Glenn Rudebusch, Eric Swanson, and
Tao Wu that is soon to appear in
Monetary and Economic Studies explores an alternative explanation based on reduced volatility of underlying macroeconomic and financial fundamentals.
The RMB: Where’s it been and where’s it going?
Faster appreciation against the dollar. And apparently against a broad basket of currencies.
Glimmers of hope in new housing numbers
Last month’s surprisingly bad numbers for housing are now followed by some mixed good cheer from the Census Bureau and the National Association of Home Builders.
Econoblog on “Dollars, Debt and the Trade Gap”
Thoughts on the Dropping Dollar
Additional thoughts on Iraq
Shivaji Sondhi and Michael Cook, who direct the Project on Oil, Energy and the Middle East at the Princeton Institute of International and Regional Studies, offer these additional thoughts for the cross-blog discussion on Iraq as a follow-up to their original contribution.
Bernanke in China
Distortion versus effective subsidy.
Blogging colloquium on Iraq
Dave Schuler and his Glittering Eye have called for a cross-blog discussion on options and prospects for Iraq. I’m glad to contribute with some thoughts on the economic situation, and invite you to participate as well, with comments left here or at any of the other participating sites.
The October Trade Release
The non-oil trade balance stabilizes. Petroleum-related imports exceed the US-China trade deficit.
2006 and the Econbrowser crystal ball
This seems like a good time to review some of the occasions over the last year when I’ve been brave (or foolish) enough to make a specific quantitative prediction.