The April trade release surprised on the upside. Here are a few other insights, not all of which are unalloyed positives.
Worries about gasoline supplies
Robert Rapier has some concerns about what could be in store for the U.S. this summer.
Post Mortem on the Cambridge Energy Research Associates Forecasts
In the summer of 2005, Cambridge Energy Research Associates received a lot of publicity for their optimistic assessments of near-term oil supplies. Two years later, it’s interesting to see how the details of those predictions have been borne out so far.
Financial Openness around the World
What do our indicators tell us?
Petroleum refining and comparative advantage
Some readers keep asking me, If U.S. refining capacity is such a big issue, why don’t we just import more finished product?
Diverging Trends in Recent Employment Measures
Little noted is the fact that, while May’s payroll employment release surprised on the upside, the household series were providing conflicting indications.
Auto sales improve in May
Yet another one of my chief worries gets some relief from new data.
Don’t worry, be happy
Yesterday the Bureau of Economic Analysis told us that first-quarter real GDP grew not at the anemic 1.3% annual growth rate as was originally reported in the “advance” estimate given to us at the end of April, but instead was a barely-positive 0.6% as now claimed in the “preliminary” 2007:Q1 estimates. So what’s worse than we thought?
Messages from the GDP Preliminary Release
GDP growth was revised down, as expected, in today’s NIPA preliminary GDP release. At 0.6% q/q growth SAAR was below Bloomberg consensus of 0.8%. But even more revealing is the pattern in recent revisions; in addition, trade adjustment looks a bit further off.
Economics of the Great Depression
I was honored to be included among those interviewed for East Carolina Professor Randy Parker’s new book, Economics of the Great Depression.