The CBO released an updated Economic Outlook yesterday. Projected PCE inflation is higher, as are budget deficits. First drop in Fed funds rate in 2025Q1. For me, most interesting are the GDP projections, including with respect to potential GDP.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-June
Industrial production surprises on upside (0.9% vs. 0.3% m/m), while nominal retail sales increase modestly (0.1 actual vs. 0.3% consensus).
Guest Contribution: “The Federal Funds Rate: FOMC Projections, Policy Rule Prescriptions, and Futures Market Probabilities from the June 2024 Meeting”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
How Fast Is Nonfarm Payroll Employment Rising?
With the release of the Philadelphia Fed early benchmark, we have the following 12 month changes in employment (000’s) from different sources:
Senator Theoden* on ZeroHedge Debate on X Spaces
Doing a great imitation of Neville Chamberlain.
“Sectoral debt and global dollar cycles in developing economies”
On Zoom, presentation by Joshua Aizenman of paper coauthored with Bada Han, Rashad Ahmed, and Yothin Jinjarak.
Funniest Thing I Have Heard this Year: Wilbur Ross on Trump’s Trade Policy Success
Just heard Wilbur Ross say on Bloomberg (roughly 3:35 ET) “The President was serious about fixing the balance of payments problem of the US”. I laughed and laughed and laughed. Maybe he was determined, but he had, like Peter Navarro, no clue about how to do it.
News Impact Illustrated: Jobs, CPI, PPI Releases
Following up on the PPI release (discussed along with other core measures) discussed here, how have markets responded, in terms of Fed funds futures, the ten year rate?
All Down: Instantaneous Core Inflation Measures for May
Core PPI under consensus (0% vs. +0.3% m/m).
Misery and Modified Misery
Conventional and Instantaneous