A few days ago, Eric Hovde spoke about impending mass layoffs. I couldn’t figure out what he was talking about; here’re some indicators for Wisconsin, and for the nation.
Wesley Clair Mitchell and Business Cycle Measurement
From NBER President & CEO James Poterba, on 8/5/2024:
“Economists for Trump”
In 2020, list here.
“Non-Essential Business Cycles” and Implications for the Imminent Recession Call
From a paper by Michele Andreolli, Natalie S. Rickard, and Paolo Surico (presented at NBER Summer Institute Monetary Economics sessions):
Hovde on Impending Mass Layoffs, Disinflation vs. Deflation, and “Illegals” (His Word, Not Mine)
See on WisconsinEye.
Food at Home CPI Component: Unchanged Relative to January 2024
Prices are up relative to January 2021, but not relative to January 2024:
Wisconsin Employment in July: Cooling
Preliminary NFP count is down 6.5K (on 3 million), unemployment rate up 0.1 ppts.
The Partisan Split in August Sentiment
Michigan 67.8 vs 66.7. Big jump in expectations 72.1 vs. 68.5 (as opposed to current situation).
Scariest Paragraph for Applied Econometricians in Project 2025
From Mandate for Leadership, aka Project 2025, page 664: