See here.
with a 4.2% contraction in the US money supply (M2) since Mar-22, all signs are pointing to a recession late this year. There have only been four contractionary episodes of the money supply since the Fed was established in 1913. With a lag, they all produced a RECESSION.
Output, employment and value added:
A flurry of investment bank newsletters (Wells Fargo, GS) impels me to look at what happened to the aggregate trade balance in the wake of Trump’s tariff hikes:
Here’s a picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee used in their business cycle chronology:
The employment surprise in context.
From Real Clear Politics and PredictIt, today:
Coincident index for February out today.
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written Hiro Ito (Portland State University). This web post was posted in RIETI’s columns series.
With implications for growth and demographic influences. From Rogoff, Rossi, and Schmelzing (AER, 2024):