Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Mark Copelovitch (University of Wisconsin – Madison) and Thomas Pepinsky (Cornell University).
Stock Market Capitalization ex-Magnificent 7
Courtesy of Ed Yardeni:
Equipment and Structures Investment
We’re about halfway into Q3. Nowcasts put equipment and structures investment — particularly forward looking investment — at near flat relative to Q2.
If You Believe the CPS Employment Series Turns Down before the CES, Be Afraid
Personally, I’m not convinced, but if you are, then consider this graph:
What Other BLS Commissioners Should’ve Been Fired (But Weren’t) Using the Trump Criterion?
Here’re other prior 2 month cumulative revisions, normalized by employment (after all, the country has been growing for the past 100 years):
Core Inflation Nowcasts and Tracking
From Cleveland Fed, Goldman Sachs, plus Bloomberg consensus – generally, acceleration in the q/q annualized:
Miran to Fed: What Are His Views?
Lots of stories regarding the impact of CEA Chair’s temporary appointment to the vacancy at the Fed Board. For an insight into Dr. Miran’s views, here’s a list of his peer reviewed articles.
“And you want to be my latex salesman?” (BLS edition) [updated 8/9/25]
Manufacturing on the Ropes?
Manufacturing employment, hours, capacity utilization down since March 2025 (pre-“Liberation Day”); manufacturing production (Fed index) flat since March.
CalculatedRisk (Still) on Recession Watch
Bill McBride’s assessment here.