Last year’s recap was entitled “Year in Review, 2021: Cleaning Up What Trump Wrought”. This year, with rational policymaking returning, it’s time to erase stupidity.
January: Some people doubt that monopsony in labor markets exists.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/01/employer-power-in-labor-markets-measured
February: The return of “drill, baby, drill” applied to natural gas — as specious as it was in its original incarnation.
March: Why do people who don’t understand the textbook analysis of tariffs try to debate tariffs?
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/03/on-tariffs-and-large-country-assumptions
April: Disruption to the global economy from the expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine over by May, for sure!
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/04/fantasies-of-the-past
May: “Drill, baby, drill!” Redux.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/05/drill-baby-drill-2022-edition
June: Policy analysis using parameter estimates that are not statistically signifcant is ok – just bury that point in the appendix! Yet another tall tale told by a purported research center — the Badger Institute.
July: What happens if you use the two-consecutive-quarter rule of thumb to define American recessions…
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/07/erasing-the-2001-recession
August: Were things sooo much better when the Fed leadership was all white and male, as some claim?
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/08/when-devoid-of-policy-proposals-attack-diversity
September: Is BEA (or FRED) hiding data on real corporate profits?
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/09/rumors-of-the-vast-data-conspiracy-continue
October: Is LNG the same as NG?
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/10/lng-contribution-to-goods-exports-balance-of-payments-basis
November: Just because an asset price returns to preshock levels doesn’t mean the shock wasn’t impactful.
December: Don’t be impervious to basic math.
One point was disputed repeatedly this year — what officially defines a recession in the United States? One argument is a decline in vehicle miles traveled [1] [2] Another is that it’s household sentiment. Or unemployment insurance claims. Or its household employment rather than establishment. Interestingly enough, all these points were made by the same person (whose comments I am thankful for, because they provide me with fodder for my economics stats course). Here’s my last picture on the 2022H1 recession thesis, using the latest available output data, and keeping in mind all of these series will be revised again, and again.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDO (tan), GDP+ (green), GDPNow for Q4 (red square), Goldman Sachs (12/23) (teal triangle), all in blillions Ch.2012$, SAAR. GDP+ level calculated by iterating on 2019Q4 GDP (when GDP and GDO matched). Lilac shading denotes peak-to-trough for a hypothesized 2022H1 recession. Source: BEA (Q4 3rd release), Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (12/22), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (12/23), Goldman Sachs (12/23), and author’s calculations.
So, Happy New Year to all. To a better informed economics/statistics/policy discourse in 2023.
I’m trying to keep score so we can give the proper awards to our Usual Suspects.
Bruce Hall with 3 clear mentions gets the Gold medal.
Two clear mentions for Princeton Steve and one implicit mean – Stevie wins the Silver!
Now JohnH has been trying hard and he gets the Bronze for two clear mentions. Come on Jonny boy – we have faith in you to take the Gold in 2023.
And course Econned managed to come in 4th. Then Econned was not trying all that hard.
LOL!
Economics attempt to present reasonable explanations of perceived value and money and markets and labor and production and how they interact… but certainly not explanations that are accepted by all who call themselves economists. Hence, the “schools” of economics. I don’t have a problem with different perspectives of the elephant, but you do. There may be situations where everyone agrees, but more likely most lead to disagreements, especially regarding government policies and “corrective” actions.
Economics is not rocket science; it only pretends to be. Sort of like watching old analog video that has faded and discolored and then digitizing it (lots of proliberalgrowth formulae) and then declaring it is now sharp and clear. Let the fun begin!
Kein Operationsplan reicht mit einiger Sicherheit über das erste Zusammentreffen mit der feindlichen Hauptmacht hinaus. All economic explanations and forecasts are correct until they are not.
Did you get your pet monkey to type that gibberish? Look Brucie – we understand you flunked Econ 101. We get you flunked first grade arithmetic. But damn – you also flunked preK reading and writing.
If you have no point – it would be best advised not commenting as you have embarrassed your poor mom enough.
Brucie tries to write sometime of value but in German? OK – for those you do not know German, here is a decent translation:
No operational plan almost certainly extends beyond the first encounter with the main enemy force.
Now you may have guessed it – Brucie had a plan to finally buy groceries for the first time since the pandemic but it seems his operational plan did not account for a couple of large black men standing outside the store. So Brucie ran home scared out of his little mind and begged his mommy to shop for him.
Checking last year’s list, it seems Princeton Steve and Judy Shelton tied for the Gold. Stevie – you are a star.
Now the Usual Suspects had a lot of competition for the Bronze with appearances by JohnH, Econned, Rick Styker, Manfred, and even CoRev.
Oh well – this year Bruce Hall made up for his lackluster 2021 performance. 2023 should be a lot of fun!
“One point was disputed repeatedly this year — what officially defines a recession in the United States? One argument is a decline in vehicle miles traveled [1] [2] Another is that it’s household sentiment. Or unemployment insurance claims. Or its household employment rather than establishment. Interestingly enough, all these points were made by the same person”
Wait – we have a challenge. Did Princeton Steve win the gold? Poor Brucie – all that effort and he gets only the Silver!
Menzie,
You’re (obviously) wrong about November by distorting commentary to boost your ego.
To a more honest and less egotistical economics/statistics/policy discourse in 2023. Cheers!
So you agree with the incessant BS from Princeton Steve? Seriously dude – Stevie is insane. Now if you want to walk down his pointless path, fine by me since you have never offered a single coherent contribution here.
Brucie did make a fool out of himself with this drill, baby, drill nonsense but my personal favorite?
“Reader Bruce Hall also writes, in re: tariffs:
‘Who wins? The government imposing the tariffs, obviously. Everything else is a lose-lose for everyone else.’
To be blunt, this assertion is wrong. In general, producers will win (in this example those firms that compete directly with the goods having tariffs placed on them), as producer surplus will increase.”
This is after a few of us were trying to explain the incidence of a tariff under alternative models where Brucie said none of us knew what we were talking about following by some of his usual mansplaining utter nonsense. No – Brucie knows less about tariffs than CoRev knows about soybeans.
I went back and read one of the links Bruce provided when he said everyone in the US (except the government) loses from tariffs. The excellent discussion (which I guess Brucie forgot to really read) made Dr. Chinn’s counter point:
‘Because production can increase in domestic firms whose products are protected from foreign competition by tariffs, estimating the jobs impact of tariffs has to take into account jobs gained, as well as those that are lost due to retaliation. The study of the tariffs on washing machines estimates that about 1,800 U.S. jobs have been created as a result of the safeguards on washing machines, with an average cost to consumers of $815,000 per job created, net of tariffs collected.’
Brucie and JohnH both have had a long history of providing links that they did not properly read – which leads to a lot of embarrassment for their families.
Oooo, good example pgl. 1,800 new jobs. The formula should be: everyone loses minus (the very few who don’t plus the government).
What’s confusing is are you now arguing for tariffs or simply picking a nit … again? When a mountain is pointed out, you tend to say, “look at that pebble over there.”
Brucie once again proves he never reads. No worthless little troll – I have repeatedly criticized Trump’s stupid trade wars. On the other hand, Brucie boy praised his MAGA god. Of course, you on occassion go all Tyler Cowen and try to pretend you are a free market type (cough, cough). But like Tyler – you cannot even get basic economics right.
So why did you choose to chime in here? Oh yea – a New Year’s reminder that you are even dumber than CoRev. Got it!
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/business/stock-market-index-funds.html
December 2, 2022
Mutual Funds That Consistently Beat the Market? Not One of 2,132.
No actively managed stock or bond funds outperformed the market convincingly and regularly over the last five years. Index funds have generally been better.
By Jeff Sommer
It’s very hard to beat the stock or bond markets with any regularity.
Each year, some investors manage to do it, of course, but can they do it consistently? A new study of actively managed mutual funds by S&P Dow Jones Indices asked that question and came up with a startling result.
It found that not a single mutual fund — not one — managed to beat its benchmark in either the U.S. stock or bond markets regularly and convincingly over the last five years. These results are even worse than those of 2014 and 2015, when I last examined this subject closely.
“If you want to be adventurous and pick stocks or actively managed funds, go ahead, of course,” Tim Edwards, global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in an interview. “But understand the risks you are taking.”
These findings support practical advice that has been the academic consensus for decades. Forget about trying to beat the odds and outsmarting everybody else. Instead, use low-cost stock and bond index funds that mirror the overall market, and keep them for decades. Don’t bother with fads or fancy market timing.
While it’s possible to beat index funds, it’s not easy to do over the long run, and as Paul Samuelson, the first American to win the Nobel in economics said in the 1970s, it isn’t worthwhile for most of us to try….
What is an “Event study”?
[ Looking to investing history, I have had no sense that mechanical event study provides a worthwhile speculation guide as compared with low cost index investing. I do not mean to be disrespectful of mechanical event analysis, but John Bogle of Vanguard was laughed at for a while before Vanguard index investing proved wildly successful for investors. ]
Something tells me you do not comprehend what Dr. Chinn means by an event analysis. He is not referring to a strategy of allocating one’s portfolio as you allude to.
Something tells me you do not comprehend what Dr. Chinn means by an event analysis….
[ I thought I offered a useful metaphor, and re-read the post, but what would be a different metaphor? ]
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-02/brazil-markets-sink-as-traders-mull-lula-s-plan-to-beef-up-state
January 2, 2023
Brazil Markets Sink as Traders Mull Lula’s Plan to Beef Up State
Petrobras, Banco do Brasil push benchmark Ibovespa lower
Investors worried spending spree will erode fiscal accounts
By Julia Leite and Barbara Nascimento – Bloomberg
[ I do not think a mechanical event study would be revealing. ]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management
Long-Term Capital Management L.P. (LTCM) was a highly-leveraged hedge fund. In 1998, it received a $3.6 billion bailout from a group of 14 banks, in a deal brokered and put together by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
LTCM was founded in 1994 by John Meriwether, the former vice-chairman and head of bond trading at Salomon Brothers. Members of LTCM’s board of directors included Myron Scholes and Robert C. Merton, who three years later in 1997 shared the Nobel Prize in Economics for having developed the Black–Scholes model of financial dynamics.
LTCM was initially successful, with annualized returns (after fees) of around 21% in its first year, 43% in its second year and 41% in its third year. However, in 1998 it lost $4.6 billion in less than four months due to a combination of high leverage and exposure to the 1997 Asian financial crisis and 1998 Russian financial crisis….
Ginni Thomas Transcript Shows Justice Thomas Should Have Recused Himself Says Lofgren
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Semx1_Z_jss
8 minute clip from Chris Hayes’s show. It is worth people’s time.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
December 31, 2022
a ) There were 5,226 coronavirus deaths in China on May 26, 2022.
b ) There were no coronavirus deaths from May 26, for nearly 6 months, through November 19.
c ) From November 20 through December 30, 2022 there have been 21 coronavirus deaths in China, bringing the total from 5,226 to 5,247.
d ) During the nearly 6 months of no coronavirus deaths in China, there were 300 to 500 coronavirus deaths each day in the United States.
e ) Coronavirus deaths in the United States continue at 200 to 400 each day.
f ) There have been 1,117,956 coronavirus deaths in the United States through December 30, 2022.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-12-19/China-has-administered-3-46-billion-doses-of-COVID-19-vaccines-1fT4RXaJniM/index.html
December 19, 2022
China’s COVID-19 fight in numbers: 3.46 billion vaccine doses administered
As of Saturday, the Chinese mainland had administered nearly 3.46 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines. Assuming every person needs two doses, that’s enough to vaccinate about 122 percent of the country’s population, and 82 percent of the population for three doses each and 61 percent for four doses.
China has recently launched a second COVID-19 booster shot, offering a fourth dose to certain groups who had received their first booster shot more than six months earlier.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-12-19/China-has-administered-3-46-billion-doses-of-COVID-19-vaccines-1fT4RXaJniM/img/a2077fb94dd94c24b3eab551ebf295fd/a2077fb94dd94c24b3eab551ebf295fd.jpeg
You’re still at this? China reports data on a very different basis than the U.S. China assigns nearly all Covid-related deaths to co-morbidities. The U.S. assigns nearly all Covid-related deaths to Covid. To repeatedly compare the two in an effort to make suggest that China has done a good job with Covid is dishonest. China has done a terrble job, using ineffective vaccines (and selling them to other countries), engaging in hygiene theater instead of real public health – endless problems, including locking people away from access to food and medical care.
China has gone from on bad set of policies to another. International publc health officials anticipate over a million deaths fromthe current Covid wave. China, and ltr, will continue to hide those deaths.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
December 30, 2022
Coronavirus
United States
Deaths ( 1,117,956)
Deaths per million ( 3,339)
China
Deaths ( 5,247)
Deaths per million ( 3.6)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
December 30, 2022
Coronavirus
New York
Deaths ( 75,235)
Deaths per million ( 3,867)
China
Deaths ( 5,247)
Deaths per million ( 3.6)
ltr wrote: “China
Deaths ( 5,247)
Deaths per million ( 3.6)”
Even a dimwit like you should understand, that the number of Covid deaths are wrong by at least one order of magnitude. To still publish these numbers in a serious discussion means that the “useful” in useful idiot do not longer apply for you. Happy new year!
https://english.news.cn/20221230/672872c217bd4ccfb5d7bfca784ff286/c.html
December 30, 2022
China’s mega water diversion project starts trial operation
HEFEI — A mega water project to divert water from the Yangtze, China’s longest river, to the Huaihe River started trial operation on Friday.
The water diversion project, which is 723 km long and took six years to construct, will supply water to 15 cities in east China’s Anhui Province and central China’s Henan Province. It is expected to benefit more than 50 million people.
Friday morning also saw the start of the construction of the second phase of this mega project — with an investment of 20.41 billion yuan (about 2.93 billion U.S. dollars).
The total investment in the first phase surpassed 94.91 billion yuan.
Besides supplying water for residents and developing shipping, this project will also be used for agricultural irrigation and will help improve the ecological environment of both the Huaihe River and Chaohu Lake….
https://english.news.cn/20221230/20f7f612dff34e26824758aaddc08a22/c.html
December 30, 2022
Major Chinese power transmission project now fully operational
BEIJING/CHENGDU — China has put into full operation a major domestic power transmission project that sends electricity from the resource-rich west of the country to energy-consuming regions in the east.
The construction of the Baihetan-Zhejiang 800-kilovolt ultra-high-voltage (UHV) direct current power transmission project was completed on Friday and it has already started operating, according to the State Grid Corporation of China (State Grid).
The clean electricity generated in Baihetan, the country’s second-largest hydropower station, will be sent from the southwestern province of Sichuan to the eastern Zhejiang Province through a transmission line stretching 2,121 kilometers.
A similar project that transmits power from Baihetan to Jiangsu Province in the east was put into use in July.
About 60 billion kilowatt-hours of clean electricity will be delivered annually through the two UHV projects, saving 27 million tonnes of coal and helping reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 49 million tonnes, said Huang Yong from the UHV department of State Grid.
These projects will also help eastern regions cope with the upcoming winter power use peak and will assist these regions in meeting the power demand of economic development and ensuring people’s livelihoods, Huang said.
Located on the Jinsha River, the upper section of the Yangtze River in southwest China, Baihetan has a total installed capacity of 16 million kilowatts — second only to the Three Gorges Dam project.
The Baihetan-Zhejiang project is expected to send 30 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity eastward every year, equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of 12.5 million households.
DRIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH, ACHIEVE CARBON-CUTTING TARGETS …
Happy New Year to all
One thing is clear from the comments to the “hits of 2022” – I have not spent nearly enough time writing comments. Yes, it’s all about me.
I hereby resolve the in the New Year, I will redouble my efforts to educate readers of comments, correct dumbness and enlighten the world. You’re welcome.
Menzie – thanks so much – I find that your blog, Calculated Risk, and Barry Ritholtz, at the Big Picture blog add facts and understanding to the economic news – much appreciated.
BTW – in local news – I see that WIGOP Speaker Voss – after talking with the DOJ about how he tried to assist with Trump’s insurrection https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2022/12/31/robin-vos-testifies-to-jan-6-committee-about-10-calls-with-trump/69768068007/ – is now trying desperately to crawdad away from Trump https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2022/12/29/robin-vos-say-hell-work-to-make-sure-trump-is-not-the-2024-gop-nominee/69752210007/ (No mention that Voss spent a million $ of WI taxpayer money on a failed effort to find voter fraud – we didn’t even get a white paper from Gableman with grease stains from all the ham sandwiches/lunches he eat on taxpayer $.)
Of course – none of the WIGOP failed efforts to either reinstate Trump or elect Trump sycophants – will keep them from pushing failed GOP economic zombie ideas – https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2022/12/12/with-big-surplus-wisconsin-gop-leader-sees-room-for-higher-tax-cuts/69716749007/
Please keep up your efforts of knocking down the nonsense RW talking points – and have a good new year,
Interesting news from ISW today. “Budanov stated that Russian forces had previously used 60,000 artillery shells per day (as of some unspecified date) and now only use 19,000 to 20,000 shells.[9] Budanov stated that Russian forces have also removed all remaining artillery ammunition from Belarusian military warehouses to support their operations in Ukraine”. Russias main problem may not just be that they are running out of trained soldiers but also that they are running out of artillery shells and equipment.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-31
The first world war was ended when Germany recognized they could not deliver resources to sustain fighting against an alliance that was able to continue increasing its resources. However, German leaders would not admit that to the public, so narratives of betrayal and jewish fifth columns took hold in the population; providing the seeds of Nazi ideology and second world war.
While Russia is trying to kill civilian infrastructure, Ukraine use their precision munition to hit military targets. Wonder who is going to win?
“ China Starts Work On The World’s Largest Desert-Based Renewable Energy Project…
According to a Bloomberg report, the project will have a capacity of 16 GW and produce some 40 billion kWh of electricity to Beijing and the provinces of Tianjin and Hebei. The project will combine solar, wind, and upgraded coal power, and is set to become the largest renewable energy project in a desert region.“
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Starts-Work-On-The-Worlds-Largest-Desert-Based-Renewable-Energy-Project.html
I’d say that reports of China’s demise are premature…wishful thinking by American “patriots.”
NO ONE – I repeat NO ONE is predicting China’s demise. Of course Jonny starts the New Year continuing his decade long run of just making stuff up.
Oh wait – there is one person here that keeps praying the PRC collapses – that would be JohnH’s only BFF Princeton Steve.
I hope you two went out on a date last night and had a grand old time! Maybe Stevie gave you a few tips of how to get Dr. Chinn mock you two at the end of the year!
“As of 2021, China’s renewable power generation capacity stood at 1,063 GW and represented close to 45 percent of the country’s total generation capacity. Per government plans, China should be producing 33 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2025 and it is close to that target, with the figure for 2021 at 29.4 percent.
Plans are to expand wind and solar capacity to 1,200 GW by 2030, Reuters reported earlier this year, as Beijing plans peak emissions by that year. Currently, China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases.
Besides being the world’s largest wind and solar power generator, China also dominates the market for solar panel components, particularly panels, and is on an international expansion path with its wind energy technology.”
With a population 4 times that of the US, one would expect China to be the largest all categories re energy issues. So I’m glad this discussion put things in percentages. But careful there Jonny boy – you fellow trolls like Bruce Hall and CoRev are not going to like you citing a discussion about the rise renewable energy sources.
http://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202212/30/WS63ae388ea31057c47eba6ef6.html
December 30, 2022
Mega solar, wind facility in pipeline in N.China
By ZHENG XIN and YUAN HUI
Beijing and Hohhot — The construction of a mega solar and wind power base in North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region will further facilitate the country’s low-carbon energy transition and ensure domestic energy security, industry experts said.
With an overall installed capacity of 16 million kilowatts and an investment of 80 billion yuan ($11.47 billion), the project, located in the Kubuqi Desert in Inner Mongolia, China’s seventh-largest desert, will cover 8 million kW of solar power and 4 million kW of wind power, said its operator China Three Gorges Corp.
As the world’s largest power generation base of its kind in desert areas, the project also includes supporting advanced and efficient coal power installation up to 4 million kW, as well as 4-6 million kW of energy storage, it said.
Once completed, the base will be able to transfer about 40 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region every year and over half of it will be clean energy, equivalent to saving about 6 million metric tons of standard coal and reducing carbon dioxide by about 16 million tons, it said.
An analyst said the project will further optimize China’s energy mix and facilitate the country’s ambition of non-fossil fuels accounting for 20 percent of total energy consumption by 2025 and 25 percent by 2030.
The project will boost the proportion of clean power in the country’s energy mix while helping the country to achieve its sustainable energy ambitions, said Luo Zuoxian, head of intelligence and research at the Sinopec Economics and Development Research Institute.
China vows to speed up the construction of solar and wind power generation facilities in the Gobi Desert and other arid regions amid efforts to boost renewable power consumption, taking advantage of plentiful solar and wind resources there, according to a statement jointly released by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration.
The government will increase the total installed capacity of wind and solar power to 1.2 billion kW by 2030. China added a record 54.9 gigawatts of solar farms last year, 14 percent more than in 2020.
Lei Mingshan, chairman of China Three Gorges Corp, said the project will not only facilitate the government’s ambitions to peak carbon by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, but also expand domestic demand and promote investment.
Together with the Kubuqi Desert project, the corporation also announced another 26 projects related to new energy and environmental protection on Wednesday with a total investment of more than 109.05 billion yuan and a total installed capacity of 19.64 million kW.
Jonny boy thought he found something new. Thanks for reminding everyone that you noted this a while back.
Johnny, Johnny, Johnny…
Here you are, standing upstraw men again. You misstate others’ views and pretend to read minds instead of engaging honestly. You blame FRED for not creating some data series you want when FRED doesn’t create any data series. It gathers together data from many outlets and offers tool to manipulate those data. It’s like accusing a grocery of not being a restaurant. You demand that professional economists use the popular press to prove how woke they are and claim that ideas not in the popular press don’t exist. That’s just drivel.
China’s economy is slowing. China’s economy is heavily indebted. Those two factors interact for very obvious reasons. Pointing out that interaction is a perfectly reasonable thing to do. Your tantrums when someone points out that interaction is childish.
The grown-ups are having a conversation, Johnny. If you want to join in, you need to grow up.
Can we all make one New Year’s resolution – say the obvious and demand Donald Trump be charged and convicted committing a whole bunch of crimes. Like Kinzinger said the obvious:
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2023/01/01/adam-kinzinger-donald-trump-january-6-sotu-bash-vpx.cnn
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
January 1, 2022
a ) There were 5,226 coronavirus deaths in China on May 26, 2022.
b ) There were no coronavirus deaths from May 26, for nearly 6 months, through November 19.
c ) From November 20 through December 31, 2022 there have been 22 coronavirus deaths in China, bringing the total from 5,226 to 5,248.
d ) During the nearly 6 months of no coronavirus deaths in China, there were 300 to 500 coronavirus deaths each day in the United States.
e ) Coronavirus deaths in the United States continue at 200 to 400 each day.
f ) There have been 1,117,983 coronavirus deaths in the United States through December 31, 2022.
If you believe those postulates about Corona in China – then I have a bridge in Brooklyn I will sell to you for cheep.
“I have a bridge in Brooklyn I will sell to you for cheep”.
Hey I own those bridges and my asking price is not cheap!
Steven Kopits
November 5, 2022 at 8:37 am
So, for H1:
1. GDP was down
2. Inflation was up
3. Civilian employment was flat to down
4. Jobs were up
5. Productivity was down.
Put another way, we have a lot of people taking second jobs to pay the bills due to inflation. We have a massive stimulus rolling off. So those second jobs were low productivity jobs and were insufficient in aggregate to offset the contractionary effects of end of stimulus. That’s the basic read, no?
But you’d better be real careful projecting that onto 2023.
Menzie ChinnPost author
November 5, 2022 at 8:46 am
Steven Kopits: You do know civilian employment rose by 2.1 million from 2021M12 to 2022M06?
But it turns out is wasn’t, was it? And that helps explain the otherwise inexplicable collapse in productivity and the inconsistent VMT and gasoline consumption numbers. Hard to imagine rapidly increasing employment and declining VMT and gasoline consumption.
So what do you say about that to your students?
Steven Kopits: See new post.
Explains the otherwise inexplicable collapse in productivity? No. Increased employment and hours worked are part of the explanation for falling productivity. You’ve got your math – assuming you did any math – upside-down. Hours rising faster than output IS a decline in productivity. Not at all “otherwise inexplicable” because that’s the explanation. It’s that simple.
As to this…:
“Steven Kopits: You do know civilian employment rose by 2.1 million from 2021M12 to 2022M06?
But it turns out is wasn’t, was it?”
…what he heck are you blathering about? Household employment rose by 2.14 million in the first 6 months of 2022, payroll employment by 2.66 million:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=YkLp
How could you get that wrong?
As to VMT and gasoline consumption, you’ve already been shown to be dead wrong about those series being reliable indicators of overall economic activity. Guess you were absent that day.
How will Menzie explain to his students? Already answered. He’s going to use your comments to demonstrate to his students the kind of errors they should avoid.
All better?
“So what do you say about that to your students?”
He probably tells his students not to write the intellectual trash you write before understanding the data. Come on Stevie – you suck at economics. IN fact suck at 1st grade arithmetic. So take a little advice – learn the basics before writing any more incredibly STUPID comments.