Interview on CNN with LingLing Wei today, she doesn’t say “recession”, but the idea is there (“struggling, ‘big time'”I think is the phrase). Here’s a picture of industrial production ex.-construction through May, and ECRI’s recession dates (peak-to-trough):
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Recession within the Next 12 Months?
Down, from WSJ survey (as noted in article):
Consumer Sentiment: Less “Meh”
Preliminary reading of 72.6 far exceeded Bloomberg consensus of 65.5. That’s an increase of one standard deviation (calculated for the last three years).
Guest Contribution: “Nowcasting with machine learning: two lessons from our recent paper”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Baptiste Meunier (ECB). The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the institutions they are affiliated with.
“It was the ‘meh’ of times. It was the worst of times…”
Conference Board is on the former, while the U. Michigan sides with the latter.
In Case You Hadn’t Noticed It Was Hot
Global land/sea temperature anomaly in June
PPI Inflation Down in June
Total PPI 2.4% vs 2.6% y/y Bloomberg consensus (0.1% vs 0.4% core.) Signal or not for future core CPI and CPI inflation?
Q/Q Inflation in Historical Context
Transitory vs. Persistent: You decide.
Inflation at Month-on-Month: Headline, Core, Sticky, Trimmed, Mean, Instantaneous
As of June:
Inflation and Core Inflation at Various Horizons
Headline and core are both at 0.2% m/m, vs. Bloomberg consensus at 0.3%. Here’s picture of m/m, y/y, and instantaneous (Eeckhout 2023, T=12,a=4).