Reader Steve Kopits writes about the debate over employment numbers:
At the same time, I thought it possible that both surveys were in fact correct, but garbled with the effect of the recovery from the suppression, thereby creating misleading impressions because we were misinterpreting the data. That still seems possible, though I’ve read that others think the CES was manipulated to provide a more rosy picture heading into the election.
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
Core PCE y/y 4.7% vs. 4.3% consensus, headline 5.4% vs. 5.0%.
Nominal consumption above consensus (1.8% m/m vs. 1.3%). Personal income was 0.6% m/m, vs. consensus 1%. The NBER BCDC looks at real consumption and real income ex-current transers for conjunctural analysis. These are plotted below, along with with real manufacturing and trade industry sales.
We don’t have estimates of GDI, but if we assume nominal net operating surpluses remain constant at 2022Q3 levels ($6.2 trn out of $26 trn GDI SAAR), then we have the following picture.
(If you’re wondering about estimating seasonals — and you might be right wonder — then here’s the alternative.) QCEW data are not reported on a seasonally adjusted basis, which makes comparison with the other regularly reported BLS series, based on surveys, difficult. One way to address this issue, while sacrificing a more current perspective, is to use 12 month changes. Here is the QCEW series compared against two others measures of nonfarm payroll growth.
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data were released today. Recalling that some observers were claiming a recession occurred in 2022H1 (and/or 2022Q2) because household survey and QCEW employment numbers had flattened. With revised Q1 and Q2 data and new Q3 data, we have the following pictures of levels for nonfarm payroll employment and private nonfarm payroll employment.
Ron Paul, on ending the conflict in the Ukraine. From CounterCurrents:
Maybe. Maybe not. Some reasons to wonder.