Gasoline prices have hit a new (nominal) high. The impact on the driving and the economy depends in part on the intensity of use of gasoline and diesel.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The Times We Live In
From WaPo:
Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) said Tuesday that he would be open to the Supreme Court overturning its 1967 ruling that legalized interracial marriage nationwide to allow states to independently decide the issue.
He later revised and extended his remarks.
Guest Contribution: “Surprisingly Strong Sanctions”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. Also available as a podcast.
Recession, Inflation – What’s the Market View?
The economy is still likely to grow, according to at least the 10yr-3mo spread. Less definitive indicator from the 10yr-2yr. Expected inflation rates have stopped moving up, and so too have implied future rates 2-3 months ahead; in fact they’ve both fallen in recent days. (For what analysis, rather than markets, think about inflation, see Jim’s Monday post; on recession, see Jim’s Wednesday post.
Wisconsin Employment and GDP: Actual and Outlook
The Wisconsin Department of Revenue released its February Economic Outlook on Monday.
Benchmarked January Employment in Wisconsin
DWD released benchmarked employment in Wisconsin yesterday. Overall employment was higher in 2021 than earlier estimated, but the slowdown in now more pronounced.
“Though wages are rising, inflation is winning the race”
That’s the title of a NPR report.
Oil Price Forecasts: DoE EIA vs. Futures
Forecast as of 3 March, and confidence intervals implied by options.
Inflation in February
Oil prices were on the rise before the invasion, so gasoline prices were up. Headline m/m ticked up, core down. We are below peaks for month-on-month, even if you hear about 40 year highs (on year-on-year).
The Gasoline Intensity of US GDP
Gasoline prices hit new (nominal) highs. But the usage of gasoline per unit GDP (and in absolute terms) has declined since 2008.