With the release of the personal income and spending release, we have real consumption (-0.1% vs. 0.0% m/m consensus) and personal income through February; also released today is real manufacturing and trade industry sales. Below, in the graph of key business cycle series followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, I add the 3rd release of 2022Q4 GDP (discussed in context of GDO and GDP+ in yesterday’s post).
Category Archives: employment
Wisconsin Economic Outlook, Benchmark Revised Wisconsin Employment and GDP
The February Wisconsin Economic Outlook forecast was just released yesterday. So too were January 2023 estimates for Wisconsin employment (incorporating annual benchmark revisions). How does the outlook look, given the data revisions? Pretty good in the short term. Over the next year – reflecting the forecast for the Nation – not as nice, with employment projected to decline modestly.
Business Cycle Indicators and the Employment Release
NFP employment increase of 311K beat the Bloomberg consensus of 205K. This number confirms the continued strength in the economy overall, at least according to the key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC plus S&P Global (nee IHS Markit) monthly GDP.
Update – Data Paranoia Watch: “I’ve read that others think the CES was manipulated to provide a more rosy picture heading into the election”
Reader Steve Kopits writes about the debate over employment numbers:
At the same time, I thought it possible that both surveys were in fact correct, but garbled with the effect of the recovery from the suppression, thereby creating misleading impressions because we were misinterpreting the data. That still seems possible, though I’ve read that others think the CES was manipulated to provide a more rosy picture heading into the election.
Dealing with Seasonality with 12 Month Changes: the QCEW
(If you’re wondering about estimating seasonals — and you might be right wonder — then here’s the alternative.) QCEW data are not reported on a seasonally adjusted basis, which makes comparison with the other regularly reported BLS series, based on surveys, difficult. One way to address this issue, while sacrificing a more current perspective, is to use 12 month changes. Here is the QCEW series compared against two others measures of nonfarm payroll growth.
Employment Levels and Cumulative Changes: Tales from the QCEW
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data were released today. Recalling that some observers were claiming a recession occurred in 2022H1 (and/or 2022Q2) because household survey and QCEW employment numbers had flattened. With revised Q1 and Q2 data and new Q3 data, we have the following pictures of levels for nonfarm payroll employment and private nonfarm payroll employment.
CBO Economic Outlook: GDP, Treasury Yields, and Recession Indicators
The CBO released its Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023-33 yesterday. The projection, based on data available as of January 6, shows a shallow decline in GDP in 2023Q1 and 2023Q2.
Was Q2 Employment Growth a Lot Slower than CES Estimate?
Maybe. From Englander/Hewin at Standard Charter (gated):
Forecasters Up Projections of GDP, Employment
The Survey of Professional Forecasters February survey was released on Friday. The median outlook has improved considerably since early January.
Sentiment and Misery (and Maybe Partisanship)
The University of Michigan’s February consumer sentiment index (preliminary) is out today. Here’s the picture (series inverted so down is improvement) and the “misery index”, the sum of unemployment and y/y CPI inflation.