Maybe. From Englander/Hewin at Standard Charter (gated):
Category Archives: employment
Forecasters Up Projections of GDP, Employment
The Survey of Professional Forecasters February survey was released on Friday. The median outlook has improved considerably since early January.
Sentiment and Misery (and Maybe Partisanship)
The University of Michigan’s February consumer sentiment index (preliminary) is out today. Here’s the picture (series inverted so down is improvement) and the “misery index”, the sum of unemployment and y/y CPI inflation.
Cumulative NFP Job Creation in First Four Years, by President
Just sayin’
Remembering (or Not) the Recession of 2022H1
Compiling a bunch of labor market data, we have the following picture of the private nonfarm labor sector, which seems to run counter to the argument last made a month ago that a recession occurred in 2022H1.
The Employment Situation Release: Benchmark Revisions and Seasonality
The Employment Situation release for January 2023 incorporated annual benchmark revisions to establishment survey series, and reported population controls for the household survey series. NFP at 517 thousand exceeded the Bloomberg consensus of 115 thousand.
Guest Contribution: “Gauging Recessions with the Jobs-Workers Gap – January 2023”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
We present an update of the jobs-workers gap discussed in previous posts: [1], [2], [3].
Five Measures of Private Employment
Various observers have argued private employment stagnated in Q2 and after (see debate here), perhaps signalling a recession in Q2. With Wednesday’s Business Employment Dynamics release, we have the following measures of cumulative changes since 2021M09:
A Graphic Exposition on Seasonality in Key Macro Indicators
Reader Bruce Hall argues that “With the exception of travel related and luxury related items, the monthly adjustments[to the CPI] tend to be relatively minor…”. I beg to differ.
A Quick and Dirty Assessment: How Far Off Is the Establishment Survey Nonfarm Payroll Employment Series?
In the debate over whether the establishment survey nonfarm payroll employment series is seriously overestimating recent (particularly Q2) employment, a reader querulously asks “So you’re saying the Philly Fed screwed up its analysis and we should ignore its work? That’s your view?”. Short answer to first question: No. Short answer to the second question: see below.