Just sayin’
Category Archives: employment
Remembering (or Not) the Recession of 2022H1
Compiling a bunch of labor market data, we have the following picture of the private nonfarm labor sector, which seems to run counter to the argument last made a month ago that a recession occurred in 2022H1.
The Employment Situation Release: Benchmark Revisions and Seasonality
The Employment Situation release for January 2023 incorporated annual benchmark revisions to establishment survey series, and reported population controls for the household survey series. NFP at 517 thousand exceeded the Bloomberg consensus of 115 thousand.
Guest Contribution: “Gauging Recessions with the Jobs-Workers Gap – January 2023”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
We present an update of the jobs-workers gap discussed in previous posts: [1], [2], [3].
Five Measures of Private Employment
Various observers have argued private employment stagnated in Q2 and after (see debate here), perhaps signalling a recession in Q2. With Wednesday’s Business Employment Dynamics release, we have the following measures of cumulative changes since 2021M09:
A Graphic Exposition on Seasonality in Key Macro Indicators
Reader Bruce Hall argues that “With the exception of travel related and luxury related items, the monthly adjustments[to the CPI] tend to be relatively minor…”. I beg to differ.
A Quick and Dirty Assessment: How Far Off Is the Establishment Survey Nonfarm Payroll Employment Series?
In the debate over whether the establishment survey nonfarm payroll employment series is seriously overestimating recent (particularly Q2) employment, a reader querulously asks “So you’re saying the Philly Fed screwed up its analysis and we should ignore its work? That’s your view?”. Short answer to first question: No. Short answer to the second question: see below.
Data Paranoia Watch: “I’ve read that others think the CES was manipulated to provide a more rosy picture heading into the election”
That’s a quote from Mr. Steven Kopits, on why the CES survey showed such a rosy picture on NFP growth. This statement joins a long pile of such allegations, e.g., Senator Barraso, Jack Welch, former Rep. Allan West, Zerohedge, Mick Mulvaney, among others. All I can say is that (1) if there was a conspiracy, they didn’t do a very good job, or (2) it’s a conspiracy so vast that it encompasses not only the other offices of the BLS, but also to ADP.
Can the Increase in Multiple Job Holders Account for the Majority of the CES-CPS Job Creation Discrepancy?
Self-declared policy analyst Steven Kopits comments:
The Employment Release: The Business Cycle Assessed, Accounting for Labor Measurement Issues, Weekly Indicators
The employment situation release for December 2022 provides latest available monthly data on the economy’s conditions. Here’re a variety of labor market indicators: