Reader rsm is perpetually concerned about the precision of economic data, most recently here in re: gasoline prices.
Why am I paying 12-15% more than the graph? What possible reason do you have for not including standard errors? Would error bars stop you from making all these claims about noise?
Below is the price of regular gasoline, plus/minus 1.96 standard errors.
Are declining as of the beginning of this week:
In thinking about benchmarks, does it matter right now which oil price to refer to? Jim H. and others have noted Brent is a more appropriate benchmark for gasoline prices.
Here’s a picture of Brent (monthly average of daily data) through October, and futures.
From Hakan Yilmazkuday, “Oil Price Pass-Through into Consumer Prices: Evidence from U.S. Weekly Data”, forthcoming in JIMF:
Conventional gasoline price since 1990.
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
I hear a lot about “records”. Not so remarkable in levels, but very remarkable in growth rates.
The IMF blog (Andrea Pescatori, Martin Stuermer, and Nico Valckx) predicts: “Surging Energy Prices May Not Ease Until Next Year”.
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Fabrizio Venditti (European Central Bank) and Giovanni Veronese (Banca d’Italia). The views expressed in this paper belong to the authors and are not necessarily shared by the Banca d’Italia and the European Central Bank.