Some of it – but some indications are that it’s not the majority.
Category Archives: international
What Happens When One Runs Around Saying Things without a Model
Steven Kopits writes:
We might expect a massive stimulus coupled with a major loss of jobs to lead to an explosion of the trade deficit, which it has.
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In extremis, such a stimulus might even generate record levels of goods imports, which it has.
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This record level of imports would result in record levels of shipping, which it has, with LA in-bound port traffic running about 15% above its prior peak. (Let me add here that US shale oil production has meant that the historical US trade deficit in oil has disappeared. Since oil is imported chiefly through Houston and a couple of other ports — but not LA — the increase in port traffic is showing up in merchandise, not oil, imports. That is, imports are going to cargo ports like Long Beach and LA.) Such ports may not be equipped to handle surges of cargo imports well above historical peaks.
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At the same time, a loss of jobs accompanied by record stimulus might lead to weak exports, which it has.
“Do Central Banks Rebalance Their Currency Shares?”
Some do; some don’t. Now published, an article in Journal of International Money and Finance (updated) by me, Hiro Ito, and Robert McCauley answering this question. From the abstract:
The Extent and Implications of the China Slowdown
According to official data published by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s growth q/q seasonally adjusted slowed considerably in Q3, to 0.2% (not annualized), below the Bloomberg consensus of 0.5%. The four quarter growth rate was 4.9%, vs consensus of 5.2%.
Guest Contribution: “Foreign official demand for US debt and US interest rates: Accounting for global common factors”
Today we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Rashad Ahmed (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, US Treasury). The views presented are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of the US Treasury, or any other organizations the author is affiliated with.
Guest Contribution: “Corporate Taxation and U.S. International Financial Integration: A consolidated-by-nationality approach”
Today, we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Agustín Bénétrix and André Sanchez Pacheco (Trinity College Dublin).
Predicting Global Imbalances on the Eve of Covid-19
Just out, my paper with Hiro Ito, “Requiem for ‘Blame It on Beijing'” [link thru Nov 28] (final version submitted on December 25, 2019):
Valuation Effects on NIIP and Net Primary Income
The gap between the market valuation of the net international investment position (NIIP) and the cumulative current account has waxed and waned over the years (see the discussion in this post). Some of this effect is due to the dollar’s value. Does the same hold true for net primary income (investment and wage income)?
The US Net International Investment Position, and Projections of US Net Income
Today, the BEA released estimates for the US net international investment position (NIIP) — the difference between what assets US residents (including the government) owns abroad and what US assets foreign residents and governments own. The decline in the value as a share of GDP has has stopped, and despite being a large negative number, US net income — income received from assets owned by the US minus income paid on assets owned by foreigners — remains positive. A new CBO working paper (Fried, “CBO’s Model and Projections of U.S. International Investment Holdings and Income Flows” ) tackles the reasons for this seemingly paradoxical phenomenon, and the prospects for its continuation.
Summarizing China’s Short Term Economic Outlook
Wells Fargo Economics analyses the extent of the current slowdown, and contemplates the impact on regional economies. Here’s the heat map: