Nonfarm payroll employment continues to rise in June (although it remained over 10% below peak, in log terms). Here is a graph of some key variables tracked by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Category Archives: recession
Business Cycle Indicators, June 26th
Big positive numbers for growth — but remember the level matters.
IMF World Economic Outlook, June Update Forecast
Today, the IMF released an extensive update to its April forecast, incorporating substantial downward revisions to forecasted growth.
Recession/Recovery and Covid-19
Just released – results from the 3rd round of the IGM/FiveThirtyEight survey – growth paths and downside risks
How Many Fatalities Will Governors and Localities Accept?
The shape of the recovery, when it comes, depends on the answer.
New cases are rising in some counties. Those counties account for a substantial share of US GDP.
Wisconsin Employment
Like the rest of the nation, employment in Wisconsin recovered slightly. Unanswered is how sustainable the recovery is.
Guest Contribution: “Defining recessions when negative growth is too common or too rare”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. He was a member of the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee for 25 years, with his term ending last fall. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate and in The Guardian.
Guest Contribution: “What Determines when a Recession is a Recession?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. He was a member of the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee for 25 years, with his term ending last fall. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate and in The Guardian.
The Hill: “Surging coronavirus cases raise fears of new lockdowns”
From The Hill:
Sharp increases in the number of coronavirus cases diagnosed in states across the nation have some local elected officials considering pauses in reopening their economies.
The rising number of cases are hitting hardest in Sun Belt states like Arizona, California, Florida and Texas. All four of those states reported their highest single-day increase in the number of confirmed cases over the weekend.
Officials have also pointed to a troubling trend in the number of people who must be hospitalized for treatment, raising anew the frightening prospect of an overwhelmed health system. …
Enter the Tilde? Rising Covid-19 Fatalities and State GDP in Question
From Goldman-Sachs today:
Source: Goldman-Sachs, “Global Economics Comment: Tracking Coronavirus,” June 13, 2020.