NABE survey, WSJ survey, Bloomberg survey, PredictIt
Category Archives: recession
Recession Probability If the Rest of August Is Like the First Half
…using plain vanilla 10yr-3mo probit regression, over 1986M01-2019M08 period, using data shown below in Figure 1
“The data are pretty clear that we are not in a recession”
Surprisingly, that’s not a quote from Larry Kudlow on today’s news shows. Rather that is then Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Ed Lazear on May 8, 2008. Just to remind people, that is 5 months after the recession start determined by NBER. Continue reading
Implications of Yield Curve Flattening for the UK
Wall Street Haruspicy Watch
Term Spreads Plumb New Depths as Long Yield Drops
A picture is worth a thousand words.
On the Eve of Recession? Five Graphs from Two Courses
I get to teach Public Affairs 854, “Macroeconomic Policy and International Financial Regulation” and Economics 435 “The Financial System” this fall. There’s a cosmic confluence this year, in terms of the subject:
Business Cycle Indicators as of 8/4/2019
Still rising, so likely no recession as of June 2019.
Estimated Recession Probabilities, August 2019
Based upon July 2019 spreads
Equipment Investment, Capital Goods Imports, and the Impending Slowdown…Again
Equipment investment is flat; capital goods imports (aside from aircraft and computers) declining 4% per annum.